Why Is Nvidia Stock Down? What Changed and What to Watch

Nvidia (NVDA) closed at $186.64 on Friday 6 November 2026, about 22% below its record close of $239.24 on 6 October. Nvidia stock is down mostly because of one day: on 5 November it fell 9.26%, its worst day since the DeepSeek scare of January 2025. Chip stocks sold off on fears that the new Democratic Congress will slow down the building of AI data centers. Nvidia’s own numbers haven’t changed since August, and the next real test is its quarterly report on 17 November.

On Sunday 8 November a new risk was added: Nvidia’s board opened an independent investigation after reports that CEO Jensen Huang was the target of a foreign intelligence effort. Monday 9 November is the first trading day with that news.

How far has Nvidia stock fallen?

Nvidia fell 24.1% from its record close on 6 October to its low on 5 November. After a small rebound it was down 22.0% on 6 November, based on Nvidia’s own price history. A fall of 20% or more from a peak is what the market calls a bear market, and MarketWatch used that term for Nvidia that week.

The fall came in two parts: a slow slide in October, then a sharp drop in election week.

Day	Close	Change
6 October (record close)	$239.24
3 November (election day)	$206.69	-13.6% over four weeks
4 November	$200.13	-3.17%
5 November	$181.60	-9.26%
6 November	$186.64	+2.78%

On 5 November about 306 million shares changed hands, three times the usual amount (Yahoo Finance). The company lost about $450 billion of market value in a single day (24/7 Wall St). For comparison, on the DeepSeek day, 27 January 2025, Nvidia fell 16.97%.

The October slide happened before the election, and the news we found doesn’t explain it, so we don’t guess.

Why did Nvidia stock drop on 5 November?

Chip stocks sold off after Democrats won control of the US Congress on 3 November. Investors worried that stricter rules on AI and data centers could slow the building that Nvidia’s chips go into. Nvidia itself reported nothing that day.

Reuters reported that Democratic wins “in states where opposition to new data centers has mounted” fed those fears. That day:

• the Philadelphia Semiconductor index, which tracks chip stocks, fell more than 12%;
• the Nasdaq fell 5.52%, its worst day in 19 months;
• the S&P 500 fell 4.36%.

Nvidia actually fell less than chip stocks as a group. Memory, power and AI cloud companies were hit harder: in our Daily Edition for 5 November, the biggest decliners among large companies were Bloom Energy (-19.85%), Sandisk (-18.67%) and Nebius (-17.26%) by about 10:27 AM New York time. The Krispy Kreme post covers the rest of that day.

Did anything change in Nvidia’s business?

No reported number changed. Nvidia’s last results came out on 26 August, and its forecast still stands: about $108.0 billion of revenue this quarter (give or take 2%) and a gross margin of about 74%.

For scale, the previous quarter brought $96.2 billion of revenue, more than double a year earlier, according to Nvidia’s results release.

What changed is the price investors pay for each dollar of expected profit. 24/7 Wall St put it at about 15 times next year’s expected earnings after the drop. This number is called the forward P/E (price-to-earnings ratio). A lower number means the price fell faster than profit forecasts did. It doesn’t mean the stock is “cheap”: the forecasts can still come down.

What does the Jensen Huang investigation mean for Nvidia stock?

It adds a new kind of risk, about Nvidia’s CEO and its standing in Washington, but so far nothing that touches its sales or its forecast. The board says it has no reason to believe that national security or Nvidia’s secrets were compromised, and Huang stays CEO.

What happened, in short:

• On Sunday 8 November, Nvidia’s board announced an independent investigation after reports that Huang had been the target of a foreign intelligence effort. A committee of independent directors runs it, with outside lawyers.
• The same day, Huang sent a message to employees admitting an affair with a businesswoman whom US officials suspect of working for Chinese intelligence, and apologized (Axios).
• The board said it has confidence in Huang, and that he will keep leading the company.
• Three Republican members of Congress asked Huang for a closed-door briefing on 18 November, the day after the earnings report (The National).

Why it matters for the stock, even with the business unchanged:

1. Nvidia leans on its founder more than most companies do. Huang has run it since 1993. Investors watch anything that could put his role in doubt. For now, the board’s statement points the other way.
2. It lands on Nvidia’s most sensitive topic. Sales to China depend on US export rules, and Nvidia has lobbied to loosen them. A national security question about its CEO gives lawmakers who want tighter rules a new argument.
3. The timing is bad. The stock is already in a broken trend, a week before its most important report. News tends to hit harder when investors are already nervous.

What would change the picture: findings from the investigation, any change in Huang’s role, or new export rules tied to the case. Until then, it’s a risk nobody can put a number on yet, and Monday’s trading will be the first sign of how much weight investors give it.

What does moneyheap’s analysis of Nvidia show?

The drop broke Nvidia’s price trend, but not its business. Our view for the next week turned negative, our view for the next few months turned neutral, and our six-month view stayed positive, though we’re less sure of it now. The 17 November report ties all three together.

Why three views? Because a stock can look weak this week and strong over half a year. So moneyheap looks at every stock over three time frames: the next 7 days, the next 1 to 3 months and the next 6 months. For each one it gives a score from 0 (very bearish, expecting weakness) to 100 (very bullish, expecting strength), and a confidence number: how strongly the evidence backs that score. These scores are our model’s opinion, not a forecast.

Next 7 days: the trend broke

Our score for the next week fell from 54 (neutral) to 32 (bearish), and our confidence rose from 65 to 80. The reason is simple: every price signal now points the same way, and when signals agree we’re more sure.

The most important signal is the 200-day average. That’s the average closing price over the last 200 trading days, and many investors use it to tell a long-term rise from a long-term fall. Nvidia had stayed above this line since 30 July. In late October it started to dip toward it. On 5 November it fell right through and closed 11% below it.

How it happened matters too. Three times the usual number of shares traded that day. That much selling usually means big investors were getting out, not just a few nervous traders. On Friday the stock bounced 2.78%, but on far fewer shares: buyers came back, but not as many as the sellers who left.

The shorter trend agrees. The 50-day average has been falling since mid-October and is now about 18% above the price.

The drop was also unusually fast. A common speed gauge, the RSI (relative strength index, from 0 to 100), fell to 25 on 5 November. That’s its lowest reading since at least mid-2024; the only other time it went below 30 in that period was the tariff selloff of April 2025. Traders call readings under 30 “oversold”. But that only says the price fell fast, not that the fall is over. A stock can stay oversold for weeks.

Next 1 to 3 months: it all comes down to the report

Our score for the next few months fell from 76 (bullish) to 58 (neutral), and confidence fell from 80 to 62. Neutral doesn’t mean nothing is happening. It means the arguments on each side roughly balance out until one event settles them: the 17 November report.

On one side, the business looks the same as before: revenue more than doubled in a year, and the $108 billion forecast still stands. On the other side are new questions: will Nvidia’s biggest customers keep spending this much on data centers, how will they pay for it, and will new rules slow them down? Nobody can answer those yet. So instead of picking a side, the analysis lowered both the score and its confidence and pointed to the report as the deciding event.

Next 6 months: the business case holds, but we’re less sure

Our six-month score stayed bullish but slipped from 84 to 76, and confidence fell from 85 to 70. The case rests on two things the drop didn’t change: Nvidia leads the market for AI chips, and it has a habit of beating its own revenue forecasts.

What the drop did change is the price. On 6 November Nvidia closed almost exactly where it ended 2025 ($186.50). The stock has given back the whole year’s gain, while its quarterly revenue more than doubled. So investors now pay less for each dollar of expected profit: about 15 times by 24/7 Wall St’s count, about 21 times in our own analysis, because the two use different profit forecasts. Either way, cheaper isn’t the same as cheap: profit forecasts can still fall.

Why are we less sure? Part of the long-term case relies on industry forecasts of AI spending, and those are other people’s guesses. The big cloud companies’ next spending plans will show whether they hold up.

What changed after the investigation news?

Almost nothing, and that is a finding in itself. We re-ran our Nvidia analysis on Sunday 8 November at 4:35 PM New York time, after the board’s statement:

Time frame	After the drop (6 November)	After the news (8 November)
Next 7 days	Bearish 32, confidence 80	Bearish 34, confidence 68
Next 1-3 months	Neutral 58, confidence 62	Neutral 58, confidence 60
Next 6 months	Bullish 76, confidence 70	Bullish 76, confidence 72

The analysis had the board’s statement among its news, but its reasoning still rests on the broken price trend and the 17 November report. That makes sense: the investigation hasn’t changed a single sales number, forecast or customer plan. The short-term confidence fell for a different reason: Friday’s rebound made the price picture less one-sided than it was on Thursday.

What the analysis can’t see yet is the market’s reaction, because the market was closed. Our next analysis after Monday’s open will include it, and that’s when we’ll know whether investors treat the investigation as noise or as a real new risk.

What does it all add up to?

A bearish week next to a bullish six months sounds like a contradiction, but it isn’t. The short view is about the price, the long view is about the business, and right now they point in different directions. Our post on bullish vs bearish explains how that happens.

Time frame	Before the drop	After the drop	What changed it
Next 7 days	Neutral 54, confidence 65	Bearish 32, confidence 80	The price broke below its 200-day average on heavy selling
Next 1-3 months	Bullish 76, confidence 80	Neutral 58, confidence 62	Everything now depends on the 17 November report
Next 6 months	Bullish 84, confidence 85	Bullish 76, confidence 70	The business is intact, but there’s more doubt about AI spending

“Before” is our analysis from the evening of 5 November, based on the 4 November close. “After” is from the evening of 6 November, the first one that included the drop.

One more signal puts a date on all this. Right now the 50-day average is still above the 200-day average. When it drops below, traders call it a “death cross”, a common sign that a long-term downtrend has started. If the price stayed at Friday’s level, that would happen in about 22 trading days, in December. So the report on 17 November comes first, while the long-term trend is still undecided. Its numbers will be the first hard evidence on whether this week’s fears were right.

Nvidia’s latest summary and news are on its research page.

What to watch next for Nvidia?

Four things will show whether the fears hold up: the 17 November report, what the new Congress actually proposes for data centers, what Nvidia’s biggest customers say about their spending, and where the investigation into Huang goes.

1. The report on Tuesday 17 November, after the market closes, with a call at 5:00 PM New York time (Nvidia). Watch revenue against the $108 billion forecast, the gross margin against 74%, and the forecast for the next quarter. A company can beat its forecast and still disappoint if the next forecast is lower than investors hoped.
2. Real rules, not headlines. So far the fear is about what lawmakers might do. Actual bills, permit decisions and power-grid rules are what would change data-center plans.
3. Customer spending. Cloud companies and other big buyers share their spending plans every quarter. Cuts there would matter more for Nvidia’s revenue than any single day’s price move.
4. The investigation. Updates from the board, the 18 November briefing that lawmakers asked for, and any link to export rules for China.

None of this says where the stock goes next. These are the facts that will either back up or undercut the reasons for the drop. Prices can keep falling after a big drop, or recover; our risk disclosures explain the limits of any signal, ours included. We’ll update this post after the report.

Frequently asked questions

When does Nvidia report earnings?

On Tuesday 17 November 2026, after the US market closes. The call with analysts starts at 5:00 PM New York time.

Is Jensen Huang leaving Nvidia?

No. As of 8 November, the board said it has confidence in Huang and his team, and that he will keep leading Nvidia as CEO while independent directors run the investigation.

Has Nvidia fallen this much before?

Yes. On 27 January 2025 it fell 16.97% in one day, when the Chinese AI model DeepSeek raised fears that AI would need fewer chips. The 9.26% drop on 5 November 2026 was its biggest one-day fall since then.

What does a forward P/E of 15 mean for Nvidia?

It means the share price is about 15 times the profit per share analysts expect Nvidia to make over the next 12 months. It’s only as good as that forecast: if profits come in lower, the real number was higher.

Where can I follow Nvidia’s sentiment?

On the Nvidia research page, through the “See NVDA sentiment” link. It shows all three time frames, how confident each one is and how they changed. How moneyheap analyzes the market explains how the scores are made.

moneyheap is a market research tool. This post is for information and education only. It is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research.