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ADM · Analysis updated Nov 10, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Why is Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) stock moving?
ADM posted a Q3 beat (adjusted EPS $1.77 vs $1.60 est., sales $22.335B vs $22.191B), raised FY26 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.50-$5.80, and cut capex to $1.2-$1.3B. Management expects Q4 operating profit to improve year over year in all segments and sees a constructive environment into 2027, though it guides 2027 roughly flat to 2026. One Benzinga headline cites a narrower $5.50-$5.58 range; the company release shows $5.50-$5.80, which this analysis uses. The stock nevertheless fell 6.8% on Nov 3, from $75.77 to $70.60, on about 7.2M shares, roughly 2.5-3x the late-October average. Since then it has held a $68.79-$71.99 range and closed at $69.30 on Nov 10, below the $75-80 area of late October. Volume remains elevated at 3.5-5.4M a day against about 2.2-2.6M in October. Analysts moved to Neutral/Hold with targets of $75-79 (JPMorgan, Stephens, Morgan Stanley), so none is a Buy and the targets sit above the current price. At $69.30 the shares trade near 12x the $5.65 midpoint of FY26 guidance. The main open question is whether the strong biofuel margins hold into 2027, which the market is discounting.
News behind the analysis
- Morgan Stanley Analyst Upgrades Archer-Daniels-Midland CompanyMorgan Stanley upgraded ADM to Hold and raised its price target from $60 to $79. The upgrade came after the Q3 report.
- ADM CEO Sees No Biofuel Margin Collapse, Expects Strength Into 2027ADM beat Q3 estimates and lifted 2026 guidance, with strong biofuels and crushing profits driving segment growth. The stock still slid after the report.
- Archer-Daniels-Midland Reports Q3 2026 Results and Raises Fiscal 2026 OutlookADM reported strong Q3 2026 results and raised its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $5.50-$5.80 from $5.15-$5.60. Capex guidance was cut to $1.2-$1.3B.
- Archer-Daniels Midland Q3 Adj. EPS $1.77 Beats $1.60 Estimate, Sales $22.335B Beat $22.191B EstimateQ3 adjusted EPS of $1.77 beat the $1.60 consensus and sales of $22.335B beat the $22.191B estimate. GAAP EPS was $1.70.
- Archer-Daniels-Midland Expects 2027 Earnings To Be "Somewhere In The Range Of What 2026 Was, Plus/Minus A Little Bit"Management guided 2027 earnings to roughly the 2026 level, plus or minus a little. This points to a flat rather than a growth outlook.
- Archer-Daniels Midland Says Co Expects "Constructive" Macro Environment To Continue Into 2027Management said it expects a constructive macro environment to continue into 2027. External policy, trade and geopolitical factors are still being monitored.
- JP Morgan Upgrades Archer-Daniels-Midland to Neutral, Maintains Price Target to $75JPMorgan upgraded ADM to Neutral with a $75 price target. The rating is still not a Buy.
- Stephens & Co. Maintains Equal-Weight on Archer-Daniels-Midland, Lowers Price Target to $75Stephens & Co. kept its Equal-Weight rating and cut its price target to $75 after the Q3 report. The cut shows analysts are not chasing the results.
- ADM Investor Services Expands Commodities Brokerage and Risk Management Services Across EuropeADM Investor Services announced an expansion of its commodities brokerage and risk management services in Europe. The unit is small relative to ADM's core crushing and biofuels business, so the impact is limited.
About Archer Daniels Midland Company
Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) is one of the world's largest agricultural commodity traders and processors. Based in Chicago, it buys, stores, ships and processes crops like soybeans and corn into food ingredients, animal feed, vegetable oils and biofuels, and it has paid a dividend every quarter for more than 90 years in a row.
How it makes money
Total revenue is very large, roughly $80–90 billion a year, but ADM keeps only a thin slice of it as profit (net margin around 2%). It reports three segments. Ag Services & Oilseeds is usually the biggest profit source: it sources and trades grain and crushes oilseeds into meal and oil. Carbohydrate Solutions processes corn into sweeteners, starches and ethanol. Nutrition sells flavors and other ingredients for human food and animal nutrition. ADM also earns income from its stake in the Asian agribusiness company Wilmar. Recently, biofuel policy has had a big effect on results: US renewable fuel mandates and the 45Z clean-fuel tax credit (worth roughly $350 million to ADM in 2026, by its own estimate) have supported crushing and ethanol margins.
What usually moves ADM
- Soybean crush and ethanol margins
- US biofuel policy (Renewable Fuel Standard mandates, 45Z tax credit)
- Crop harvests, commodity prices and global trade/tariff dynamics
- Growth and profitability of the Nutrition segment
- Energy prices