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ADPT · Analysis updated Nov 10, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Why is Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation Common Stock (ADPT) stock moving?
Adaptive reported Q3 2026 results on Nov 4 with revenue of $83.9M, which beat the roughly $71.6M consensus, and MRD revenue rose 28% (44% excluding milestones). The company reached total profitability for the quarter, with adjusted EBITDA of $14.3M and free cash flow of $7.7M, and raised full-year MRD revenue guidance to $276M-$286M, implying 30%-35% growth. Adjusted EPS of $(0.13) missed the $(0.10) estimate, and reported headline revenue fell 11% year over year because of Genentech Agreement timing. Clinical and guideline news is supportive: NCCN added an MRD framework for multiple myeloma including annual maintenance testing, and IMWG introduced a cure definition that requires MRD negativity, and a MolDX technical assessment is pending for an additional Medicare bundle. Guggenheim kept its Buy rating and lifted its target to $34 on Nov 10. Price action fits this story: the stock rose from $24.41 (Oct 22) to a $28.37 close on Oct 28, dipped to $25.06 after heavy volume on Oct 30 and Nov 2, rallied into earnings and through Nov 9 (+8.1% on 2.83M shares, close $30.26), then eased to $29.36 on Nov 10 after an intraday high of $30.81. A Telo Genomics comparative study is a competitive watch item, and the immune medicine separation remains open.
News behind the analysis
- Guggenheim Maintains Buy on Adaptive Biotechnologies, Raises Price Target to $34Guggenheim kept its Buy rating and raised its price target to $34 on Nov 10, according to Benzinga.
- Adaptive Biotechnologies Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial ResultsAdaptive reported Q3 revenue of $83.9M, reached total company profitability with adjusted EBITDA of $14.3M, and raised full-year 2026 MRD revenue guidance to $276M-$286M.
- Adaptive Biotechnologies Q3 Adj. EPS $(0.13) Misses $(0.10) Estimate, Sales $83.902M Beat $71.600M EstimateAdjusted EPS missed consensus, while sales beat the estimate by roughly $12M.
- Adaptive Biotechnologies Q3 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptBenzinga published the full transcript of the Q3 2026 earnings call, covering the quarter's results and outlook.
- Telo Genomics Expands Comparative Evaluation of TELO-MRD Against Adaptive Biotechnologies' clonoSEQTelo Genomics is running multicenter studies comparing its blood-based TELO-MRD assay with clonoSEQ, a potential competitive factor for MRD testing.
About Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation Common Stock
Adaptive Biotechnologies is a Seattle company that reads the genetic sequences of immune cells (T-cell and B-cell receptors) to diagnose and track disease. Its main product, the clonoSEQ test, uses this technology to detect minimal residual disease (MRD): tiny amounts of cancer left in patients with blood cancers such as multiple myeloma, leukemia and lymphoma.
How it makes money
Most revenue comes from its MRD business. That includes clonoSEQ tests billed to Medicare and private insurers, plus MRD testing sold to drug companies for their clinical trials. MRD revenue is guided at about $276–286M for 2026 (roughly 30–35% growth), and the company delivered about 40,000 clonoSEQ tests in Q3 2026. A smaller Immune Medicine unit earns money from drug-discovery partnerships, most notably a collaboration with Genentech that has paid milestone fees. Total revenue was about $277M in 2025. The company had its first profitable quarters recently (Q3 2025 and Q3 2026) but has a long history of losses. It also carries $345M of convertible notes issued in 2026.
What usually moves ADPT
- clonoSEQ test volume growth
- Medicare and insurer reimbursement decisions
- Inclusion in blood-cancer treatment guidelines
- Biopharma partnership milestones
- Progress toward sustained profitability