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AEE · Analysis updated Nov 10, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Why is Ameren Corporation (AEE) stock moving?
Ameren's Q3 2026 report on Nov 5 was a clear beat: EPS of $2.42 versus a $2.30 estimate and sales of $2.882B versus $2.817B. Management raised 2026 GAAP EPS guidance to $5.35-$5.55, above the $5.40 consensus, and gave a 2027 range of $5.70-$5.90 with an 8-10% EPS CAGR through 2031. The capital plan calls for $8.8B of 2027 investment, and management expects large-load sales to start ramping in late 2027. Other items support the outlook: the DOE grid-enhancing technology selection (Oct 28), Sunraycer solar projects interconnecting to Ameren's transmission system (Nov 3), and Mizuho lifting its target to $123 while keeping Outperform (Nov 9). The 2027 guidance midpoint of $5.80 sits just under the $5.81 consensus, which limits the upside surprise. On the chart, the stock rose from $108.94 on Oct 22 to a $113.68 close on Nov 10, with an intraday high of $115.31 on Nov 5. Volume was heavy on Nov 4-6 (2.9M-3.1M shares against roughly 1.0M-2.0M earlier), then eased to 1.36M on Nov 10, so the post-earnings rally is cooling. Closes of $110.37-$111.42 in early November mark the recent floor, and $115.31 is the recent high.
News behind the analysis
- Mizuho Maintains Outperform on Ameren, Raises Price Target to $123Mizuho kept its Outperform rating on Ameren and raised its price target from $113 to $123. The move follows the company's Q3 results and guidance update.
- Ameren Corporation Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Updates Earnings GuidanceQ3 2026 GAAP net income was $676 million, or $2.42 per diluted share, versus $2.35 a year earlier. The company raised its 2026 EPS guidance and issued a 2027 range of $5.70 to $5.90.
- Ameren Q3 EPS $2.42 Beats $2.30 Estimate, Sales $2.882B Beat $2.817B EstimateAmeren beat consensus on both earnings per share and sales for the third quarter. Adjusted EPS was $2.42 against $2.17 a year earlier.
- Ameren Raises FY2026 GAAP EPS Guidance from $5.25-$5.45 to $5.35-$5.55 vs $5.40 EstThe 2026 GAAP EPS guidance range was lifted by $0.10 at both ends. The new midpoint of $5.45 is above the $5.40 consensus estimate.
- Ameren Sees FY2027 GAAP EPS $5.70-$5.90 vs $5.81 EstThe 2027 GAAP EPS guidance midpoint of $5.80 sits just below the $5.81 consensus. The company also set an 8% to 10% EPS compound annual growth target for 2027 through 2031.
- Ameren Sees Over Half Of $500M Iowa Transmission Project Investment In Capital Plan; Sees 2027 Capital Investments Of $8.8B; Says Large Load Sales Expected To Begin Ramping In Late 2027, Accelerate In 2028 - 2029Management expects 2027 capital investment of $8.8 billion, with over half of a $500 million Iowa transmission project already in the capital plan. Large-load sales are expected to start ramping in late 2027.
- Ameren Says Upside Load Case Would Require Additional Gas And Renewable Generation By 2032 - 2034; Expects Additional Energy Service Agreements To Be Signed In 2027An upside load scenario would require more gas and renewable generation by 2032 to 2034. Management expects additional energy service agreements to be signed in 2027.
- Ameren Q3 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptThe full transcript of the third-quarter 2026 earnings call is available. It covers the results, guidance and capital plan discussed by management.
- Sunraycer Announces Two Solar Projects Interconnecting to Ameren Transmission SystemsSunraycer has secured site control for two solar projects, Gem City and Mighty Mississippi, that will connect to Ameren's transmission infrastructure. The projects add to future load and generation on Ameren's grid.
- U.S. Department of Energy Selects Ameren for Grid-Enhancing Technology ProjectThe U.S. Department of Energy selected Ameren Missouri and Ameren Illinois, with Pitch Aeronautics, to deploy grid-enhancing technologies. The aim is to raise transmission capacity and reliability on existing lines.
About Ameren Corporation
Ameren is a St. Louis-based utility holding company. It supplies electricity and natural gas to roughly 2.5 million electric and about 0.9 million gas customers in Missouri and Illinois, and it owns high-voltage transmission lines. Nearly all of its business is rate-regulated, and it is spending heavily on its grid and on new generation, such as a large solar project it bought in 2026 and a proposed 2,100-MW gas plant in Missouri.
How it makes money
Most of its revenue comes from regulated rates that customers pay for electricity and gas. State regulators (Missouri and Illinois) and the federal regulator FERC approve these rates so the company can recover its costs and earn a return on what it has invested. In early 2026, quarterly earnings came from four segments: Ameren Missouri (an integrated electric utility that also owns power plants, the largest segment for most of the year), Ameren Transmission, Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution and Ameren Illinois Natural Gas (which earns most of its profit in winter). Its 2026 earnings guidance is about $5.25–$5.45 per share. The company pays a quarterly dividend of about $0.75 per share. It pays for its large investment plans by issuing new debt and new shares, which spreads ownership more thinly for existing shareholders.
What usually moves AEE
- Rate case decisions in Missouri and Illinois
- Capital spending plans and rate-base growth
- Interest rates and borrowing costs
- New electricity demand from data centers and industry
- Weather and how much energy customers use