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AER · Analysis updated Nov 10, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Why is AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER) stock moving?
AER has rallied from 147.48 on Oct 22 to 175.85 on Nov 10, a gain of about 19%, with the strongest leg following the Oct 28 Q3 report. Corrected figures show adjusted EPS of $6.56 against a $4.16 estimate and sales of $2.415B against $2.142B, and full-year adjusted EPS guidance was lifted to $20.70 from $16.80 versus an $18.53 consensus. An earlier Benzinga headline reported a sales miss, but the correction supersedes it. Five brokers (JP Morgan, Citigroup, TD Cowen, Barclays, Truist) raised targets to $181-$200 after the print, averaging about $189, so the stock is roughly 7% below that average. Morgan Stanley's Equal-Weight reaffirmation is the main neutral voice. Follow-on news is supportive: a Turkish Airlines lease for two 777-300ERSF freighters, a third-party purchase of two A330s from AerCap-managed entities, and management's view that sale-leaseback demand could firm in the new year as fuel costs pressure airlines. Trading volume has been moderate, around 1.4M shares a day recently, with the heaviest session at 2.10M on Nov 5, so the advance has not been driven by a volume surge. A $1.58M insider sale on Nov 3 is small relative to the company. The $0.40 quarterly dividend (record date Nov 11, payable Dec 3) yields about 0.9% at current prices. Risks include a stretched short-term move, the $750M each of 5.5% 2030 and 5.875% 2033 senior notes issued in October adding to debt costs, slower China asset sales, and competition from Boeing's MAX 10.
News behind the analysis
- AerCap Holdings N.V. Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Raises Full-Year GuidanceAerCap reported record Q3 2026 results and raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to about $20.70.
- AerCap Holdings Raises FY2026 Adj EPS Guidance from $16.80 to $20.70 vs $18.53 EstThe raised FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $20.70 sits well above the $18.53 consensus estimate.
- CORRECTION: AerCap Holdings Q3 Adj. EPS $6.56 Beats $4.16 Estimate, Sales $2.415B Beat $2.142B EstimateCorrected figures show Q3 adjusted EPS of $6.56 versus a $4.16 estimate and sales of $2.415B versus $2.142B expected.
- AerCap CEO Says Suspect That In The New Year There May Be A Bit More Intensity In Discussions Over Potential Sale-Leaseback With CustomersThe CEO expects more sale-leaseback discussions with airline customers in the new year.
- AerCap Signs Lease Agreements with Turkish Airlines for Two Boeing 777-300ERSF AircraftAerCap signed leases with Turkish Airlines for two Boeing 777-300ERSF converted freighters, with deliveries due between March and September 2027.
- JP Morgan Maintains Overweight on AerCap Holdings, Raises Price Target to $200JP Morgan kept its Overweight rating and raised its price target to $200.
- Citigroup Maintains Buy on AerCap Holdings, Raises Price Target to $185Citigroup kept its Buy rating and raised its price target to $185.
- AELF Acquires Two Airbus A330 Aircraft from AerCap-Managed EntitiesAELF bought two Airbus A330 aircraft from AerCap-managed entities, both currently leased to Wamos Air.
- Morgan Stanley Maintains Equal-Weight Rating on AerCap HoldingsMorgan Stanley reaffirmed its Equal-Weight rating, a neutral stance that does not match the Overweight and Buy calls from peers.
About Aercap Holdings N.V.
AerCap is the world's largest aircraft leasing company. It is based in Dublin and listed on the NYSE, and it buys jets, engines and helicopters and rents them to airlines and operators around the world. Its portfolio holds about 3,500 owned, managed or on-order assets (as of September 2026), with average remaining lease terms of roughly 7 years. That size gives it unusual buying power with Boeing and Airbus and cheaper access to funding.
How it makes money
Most of its revenue is basic lease rent from airlines on long-term contracts, roughly $1.7 billion a quarter in 2026. It also earns money from maintenance payments and end-of-lease compensation, and it books gains when it sells older aircraft. Asset sales were unusually high in 2026 (over $5 billion), and management expects them to settle back to about $2.5–3 billion a year. Other income comes from engine leasing (including spare engines), helicopter leasing and aircraft management. Because the business is funded largely with debt, interest costs (an average of about 4.2%) matter a great deal.
What usually moves AER
- Global air travel demand and airline health
- Tight new-aircraft supply from Boeing and Airbus delays
- Interest rates and credit spreads affecting funding costs
- Aircraft values and gains on asset sales
- Share buybacks and capital return