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AR · Analysis updated Nov 10, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Why is Antero Resources Corporation (AR) stock moving?
Antero reported a strong Q3 2026: record net production above 4.2 Bcfe/d (+23% YoY), adjusted EBITDAX of $634M (+99%), adjusted free cash flow of $215M (+137%), and cash costs of $2.05/Mcfe, below guidance. Management also bought back 1.6M shares for about $56M and kept leverage near 1.0x. The one soft spot was that adjusted EPS of $0.83 and revenue of $1.563B both missed consensus slightly. After the report, the stock slid from $42.11 (Oct 28) to $36.08 (Nov 6), a drop of about 14%, with volume elevated on the sell-off days, and it has since rebounded to $37.63 on Nov 10. Three brokers (Citigroup $50, Truist $52, Wells Fargo $58) raised targets after the print, which implies roughly 33% to 54% upside from the last close. The gap between the decline and the bullish targets suggests the market is focused on the small EPS miss and gas price exposure, not on the cash flow and margin gains. Near term, the price action is mixed and the recent bounce is modest. Over the coming months, the record production, falling unit costs, and shareholder returns support the bullish case, provided natural gas prices hold up.
News behind the analysis
- Antero Resources Announces Third Quarter 2026 Financial and Operating ResultsRecord net production of over 4.2 Bcfe/d (+23% YoY), adjusted EBITDAX of $634M (+99%), and adjusted free cash flow of $215M (+137%). Cash costs fell to $2.05/Mcfe, and the company bought back 1.6M shares for about $56M.
- Antero Resources Q3 Adj. EPS $0.83 Misses $0.98 Estimate, Sales $1.563B Miss $1.567B EstimateAdjusted EPS and revenue both came in slightly below consensus, despite the strong production and cash flow figures.
- Antero Resources Q3 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptTranscript of the third-quarter call, where management discussed the margin enhancement program and its cost and production progress.
- Wells Fargo Maintains Overweight on Antero Resources, Raises Price Target to $58Wells Fargo kept its Overweight rating and raised its price target to $58 from $57.
- Wells Fargo and Truist Securities Update Analyst Ratings for Antero ResourcesWells Fargo raised its target to $58 from $57 with an Overweight rating, and Truist kept a Buy with a $52 target.
- Truist Securities Maintains Buy on Antero Resources, Raises Price Target to $52Truist kept its Buy rating and raised its price target to $52.
- Citigroup Maintains Buy on Antero Resources, Raises Price Target to $50Citigroup kept its Buy rating and raised its price target to $50.
About ANTERO RESOURCES CORPORATION
Antero Resources is a Denver-based company that drills for natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs) in the Appalachian Basin, mainly the Marcellus Shale in West Virginia. It is one of the largest US producers of NGLs, which are gas byproducts such as ethane and propane. It also holds firm pipeline capacity that lets it ship much of its output to export terminals and the Gulf Coast. In 2026 it bought HG Energy's Marcellus assets and sold its Ohio Utica Shale position. Production hit a record of about 4.2 billion cubic feet equivalent (Bcfe) per day in Q3 2026.
How it makes money
Antero earns most of its money selling the natural gas, NGLs (ethane, propane, butane) and a small amount of oil that it produces. Natural gas is the largest share by volume, and liquids add a big slice of revenue. It also earns some marketing income by reselling gas through its pipeline capacity. It owns a stake in Antero Midstream (AM), which provides its gathering and processing. Q2 2026 revenue was roughly $1.6 billion.
What usually moves AR
- Natural gas prices (Henry Hub and Appalachian regional prices)
- NGL and propane export prices and demand
- LNG export growth and power demand from data centers
- Production volumes and cash costs
- Hedging results and share buybacks