moneyheap
AXON · Analysis updated Nov 6, 2026, 11:45 AM ET
Why is Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON) stock moving?
Axon rallied from about $383 on Oct 19 to a high near $438 on Oct 29. It then fell 9.8% on Nov 5, to $382.56, on volume of 3.6M shares, about 4x the usual level, ahead of results. The Q3 report came after the close. Revenue of $909M (+28%) and adjusted EPS of $1.72 both missed consensus. Federal counter-drone deployments slipped, including about $30M that did not land in Q3. Full-year revenue guidance was lowered to about $3.61B-$3.63B, and the free cash flow target was cut to $350M-$400M. Adjusted gross margin fell to 59.2% from 62.7%. Underlying software metrics stayed strong: software and services revenue rose 43%, ARR rose 40% to $1.75B and net revenue retention was 126%. Axon also committed $1.2B more to Skydio, raising its stake to 37% and securing exclusive U.S. public safety distribution. Analysts reacted with target cuts (Needham to $500, Piper Sandler to $540) and a Zacks downgrade to Hold. On Nov 6 the shares traded around $314, down 18% and below the prior 52-week low. The drop looks like a reset after a premium valuation, driven by guidance and margins. The long-term growth story is intact but now has less room for execution misses.
News behind the analysis
- Axon Stock Falls on Q3 Miss, Guidance, Increases Investment in Drone Response Company SkydioQ3 revenue of $908.55M, up 28%, came in below estimates. Axon also announced an additional $1.2B investment in Skydio.
- Axon Stock Falls as Federal Drone Deployments StallSoftware and services revenue rose 43% and ARR rose 40% to $1.75B. A roughly $30M federal Dedrone deployment slipped, and full-year growth guidance was cut to about 30%.
- Axon stock falls 25% post-Q3: Federal drone delays spook Wall St.Shares fell nearly 25% after hours to about $315.99. The Skydio deal raises Axon's stake to 37% at a $5.2B pre-money valuation.
- Why is Axon Enterprise stock sliding today?Needham cut its price target to $500 from $750 and kept a Buy rating. Zacks downgraded the stock to Hold.
- Axon Enterprise Stock Slides Again Friday: What's Going On?The 2026 revenue forecast was cut to $3.61B-$3.63B from $3.67B-$3.725B. The shares were also lower in Friday premarket trading.
- Axon Shares Plunge 24% to 52-Week LowShares fell 24% intraday to about $322, the steepest one-day drop in six months. They are down 43.3% year to date.
- Axon Enterprise Q3 Earnings Miss Estimates as Margins NarrowAdjusted EPS of $1.72 missed the $1.90 consensus. Revenue of $909M missed by 2.4%, and margins narrowed.
- Axon Enterprise (NASDAQ:AXON) Issues Quarterly Earnings ResultsEPS missed estimates by $0.17, though revenue was up 28% and year-to-date bookings were up more than 20%.
- Axon Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)Q4 revenue guidance is $990M-$1.01B and Adjusted EBITDA guidance is $245M-$250M. Full-year revenue is implied at about $3.61B-$3.63B.
- Axon Enterprise (AXON) Stock Price, News, Quote & HistoryShares traded around $313.70, down 18%, in a 52-week range of $308.20-$665.07. Piper Sandler lowered its target to $540 from $561.