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AXTQ · Analysis updated Nov 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET
Why is Tradr 2X Short AXTI Daily ETF (AXTQ) stock moving?
AXTQ is a -200% daily inverse ETF on AXT (AXTI). It jumped from a $25.31 close on Oct 28 to $61.17 on Nov 5, with Nov 5 trading on the most trades of the period (8,985). The gain came as AXTI fell about 20% on Nov 5, after a 12% drop on the Q3 report. The report itself was strong: revenue of $73.4M (+162% year over year), EPS of $0.41 against a $0.31 estimate, and Q4 guidance near $90M. It also showed a backlog above $500M and a $43.5M Lumentum prepayment. AXTI's drop therefore looks like sell-the-news profit-taking after a steep run, with the stock far below its $143 high. Fundamentals and the Buy consensus (average target about $91.60) lean against a lasting AXTI decline. Overcapacity worries and AXTI's reliance on indium phosphide are the main bear arguments. AXTQ's daily moves are extreme, with intraday ranges of 20% or more. Daily rebalancing also erodes returns over longer holding periods, especially after a spike like this one. The 2x inverse product has already priced in a lot of AXTI weakness, and sharp reversals are likely.
News behind the analysis
- AXT, Inc. Announces Third Quarter 2026 Financial ResultsQ3 revenue was a record $73.4M, up 54% from Q2 and 162% from a year earlier. Non-GAAP EPS was $0.41, and management said indium phosphide demand is exceptionally strong.
- AXT Form 8-K: Third Quarter 2026 Financial ResultsGAAP gross margin rose to 56.0% from 44.9% in Q2. GAAP net income was $25.7M, or $0.39 per share.
- Earnings call transcript: AXT tops Q3 2026 estimates, but shares fallAdjusted EPS of $0.41 beat the $0.31 estimate, and revenue of $73.41M beat the $66M estimate. Shares still fell after the report.
- AXT (AXTI) Q3 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptAXTI fell about 12% on the day after the report. Management cited an inflection point in indium phosphide demand and up to $545M of Tongmei private equity financing.
- AXT Q3 Earnings Call Highlights: Revenue Surges 162%Q4 revenue is guided to about $90M, and a Lumentum supply deal brought a $43.5M prepayment. Risks include overcapacity as competitors add capacity and a heavy reliance on indium phosphide.
- AXT Backlog Tops $500 Million as Indium Phosphide Demand Exceeds SupplyIndium phosphide revenue was $54.3M, about 74% of the total. Customers are on allocation and lead times exceed nine months.
- What AXT (AXTI) Said on Its Q3 Earnings CallNon-GAAP gross margin reached 56.1%, helped by volume, mix and higher indium phosphide prices. The 6-inch lines reached pilot production.
- AXT (AXTI) Q3 2026 Earnings: Results, Market Reaction & HistoryAXT beat EPS estimates by 33% for a fourth straight quarter, and revenue beat by 11%.
- AXT, Inc. (AXTI) Stock Price, Chart & NewsOn Nov 5, AXTI traded near $37.95, down about 20% intraday, on volume of about 13.4M shares. The average analyst target is $91.60 with a Buy consensus.
- AXTI Stock Price and ChartAXTI was down about 17.8% in one day and 36% over one week. Analyst targets range from $56 to $125.