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BLDR · Analysis updated Nov 10, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Why is Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR) stock moving?
Builders FirstSource reported Q3 2026 results on Oct 29 that beat consensus on the headline numbers, with adjusted EPS of $1.51 versus a $1.04 estimate and sales of $3.854B versus $3.770B. The underlying trend was weak, however: net sales fell 2.2% to $3.9B, gross margin fell 260 basis points to 27.8%, adjusted EBITDA dropped 28.3% to $311.1M, GAAP diluted EPS was $0.56 against $1.10 a year earlier, and free cash flow fell 83.7% to $76.0M. Management narrowed FY2026 sales guidance to $14.2B-$14.6B while keeping the midpoints, and blamed a lower housing starts environment. The stock rose about 12.9% on Oct 29, from $55.88 to $63.06, on roughly 5.7M shares, about 2.4 times the prior five-day average of about 2.4M... (see note below). It then climbed to a $70.25 high on Nov 4 and has since pulled back, closing at $62.93 on Nov 10, about 9.5% below the Nov 4 close of $69.50. Post-earnings analyst moves were mixed: Truist ($75, Buy), KeyBanc ($80, Overweight), Barclays ($70, Overweight), StoneX ($75, Buy), Stifel ($58, Hold), Wells Fargo ($58, Equal-Weight) and RBC ($56, Sector Perform) leave the seven-target average near $67, roughly 7% above the last close. Overall the evidence is balanced: the earnings beat and the reaffirmed midpoints support the price, while falling margins, cash flow and EBITDA, and the housing headwinds, cap the upside.
News behind the analysis
- Builders FirstSource Q3 Adj. EPS $1.51 Beats $1.04 Estimate, Sales $3.854B Beat $3.770B EstimateQ3 adjusted EPS and sales both came in above consensus estimates. Net sales were $3.9B, down 2.2% year over year, and adjusted EBITDA fell 28.3% to $311.1M.
- Builders FirstSource Narrows FY2026 Sales Guidance from $14.000B-$14.800B to $14.200B-$14.600B vs $14.305B EstThe company narrowed its FY2026 net sales guidance to $14.2B-$14.6B and kept the midpoints for net sales and adjusted EBITDA. The new range brackets the $14.305B consensus estimate.
- Builders FirstSource Q3 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptThe transcript of the Q3 2026 earnings call, where management discussed housing conditions and the narrowed full-year outlook. Management said Q3 results met expectations.
- Wall Street Analysts Update Price Targets for Builders FirstSourceBarclays, StoneX, UBS and RBC adjusted their price targets after the third-quarter report. The revisions were mixed, with some raises and some cuts.
- Truist Securities Maintains Buy on Builders FirstSource, Raises Price Target to $75Truist kept its Buy rating and raised its price target to $75 from $70 after the quarter. It is one of the higher targets among the brokers covering the stock.
- RBC Capital Maintains Sector Perform on Builders FirstSource, Lowers Price Target to $56RBC kept its Sector Perform rating and cut its price target to $56 from $62. The target is now below the latest close of $62.93.
- Barclays Maintains Overweight on Builders FirstSource, Lowers Price Target to $70Barclays kept its Overweight rating and lowered its price target to $70 after the quarter.
- StoneX Maintains Buy on Builders FirstSource, Lowers Price Target to $75StoneX kept its Buy rating and lowered its price target to $75 after the quarter.
- Keybanc Maintains Overweight on Builders FirstSource, Lowers Price Target to $80KeyBanc kept its Overweight rating and lowered its price target to $80 after the quarter. It is the highest target among the reported updates.
- Wells Fargo Maintains Equal-Weight on Builders FirstSource, Raises Price Target to $58Wells Fargo kept its Equal-Weight rating and raised its price target to $58. The target remains well below the latest close.
About Builders FirstSource, Inc.
Builders FirstSource, based in Irving, Texas, is the largest US supplier of building materials, prefabricated parts and services to homebuilders, with roughly $15 billion in yearly sales. Besides lumber, it makes and sells higher-value factory-built parts such as roof trusses, wall panels, windows and doors, and it keeps growing by buying smaller regional suppliers.
How it makes money
It sells lumber, sheet goods and factory-built parts (trusses, wall panels, millwork, windows, doors) to professional builders, along with installation and other services. The largest share of its sales comes from new single-family homes, and the rest from multifamily building and repair/remodel work. Profit depends heavily on higher-margin factory-built parts and on lumber prices, which are passed through to customers. In 2026, fewer housing starts and falling lumber prices pushed sales down. It reported a small loss in the first quarter, and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) fell sharply.
What usually moves BLDR
- US single-family housing starts
- Lumber and commodity prices
- Mortgage rates and housing affordability
- Acquisitions and share buybacks
- Cost cuts and margins on factory-built products