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CARR · Analysis updated Nov 10, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Why is Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) stock moving?
Carrier beat Q3 2026 estimates on October 29, with adjusted EPS of $0.87 against $0.77 expected and sales of $6.263B against $6.076B, and it raised full-year sales guidance to $23.8B-$24.0B from $23.0B (consensus $23.264B). Adjusted EPS guidance of $2.85-$2.90 sits around the $2.88 consensus. The shares opened about 4.5% lower on the day, dipped to $52.89, and recovered to close at $55.54, showing that buyers stepped in on the print. Since then the stock has slid back: it fell to $53.21 on Nov 5 on 7.5M shares, reached a 30-day low of $52.34 on Nov 6 and Nov 10, and closed at $53.01 on Nov 10, below the post-earnings close. Volume has eased from the 10-11M share earnings days to about 6M. Analysts kept positive ratings but cut targets after the quarter: Evercore $75, RBC $70, Baird $70, Citi $71, Wells Fargo $65 and BNP Paribas $60 (Neutral). The targets still sit above the current price. Other items are mostly neutral to mildly positive: a small bolt-on acquisition by Automated Logic with undisclosed terms, a mixed shelf registration that opens the door to future issuance, and a Baird conference presentation by the CEO and CFO on November 11. The debt-issuance details are only in the SEC filings and are not covered by the news items.
News behind the analysis
- Carrier Global Q3 Adj. EPS $0.87 Beats $0.77 Estimate, Sales $6.263B Beat $6.076B EstimateQ3 2026 adjusted EPS of $0.87 and sales of $6.263B both beat consensus estimates.
- Carrier Global Widens FY2026 Adj EPS Guidance from $2.90 to $2.85-$2.90 vs $2.88 Est; Raises FY2026 Sales Guidance from $23.000B to $23.800B-$24.000B vs $23.264B EstFull-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance was set at $2.85-$2.90, versus a $2.88 estimate, and sales guidance was raised to $23.8B-$24.0B from $23.0B.
- Carrier Global Corporation Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial ResultsCarrier published its official third quarter 2026 results release, the basis for the earnings beat and guidance update.
- Evercore ISI Group Maintains Outperform on Carrier Global, Lowers Price Target to $75Evercore kept an Outperform rating but cut its price target to $75 after the quarter.
- Wells Fargo Maintains Overweight on Carrier Global, Lowers Price Target to $65Wells Fargo kept an Overweight rating and lowered its price target to $65.
- BNP Paribas Maintains Neutral on Carrier Global, Lowers Price Target to $60BNP Paribas kept a Neutral rating and cut its price target to $60, the lowest among the cited brokers.
- Automated Logic, a Carrier Global Corporation subsidiary, to acquire Logical Solutions, Inc.Carrier's subsidiary Automated Logic signed a definitive agreement to buy Logical Solutions, a building-management firm, to expand its national footprint. Terms were not disclosed.
- Carrier Global Files Prospectus For Offering Mixed Shelf; Terms UndisclosedCarrier filed a mixed shelf prospectus, a registration that allows future debt or equity offerings; terms were not disclosed.
- Carrier Global Corporation Executives to Present at Baird 2026 Global Industrial ConferenceCEO David Gitlin and CFO Patrick Goris will present at the Baird 2026 Global Industrial Conference on November 11, 2026.
- Baird Maintains Outperform on Carrier Global, Lowers Price Target to $70Baird kept an Outperform rating and lowered its price target to $70.
About Carrier Global Corporation
Carrier Global, based in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, makes heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) equipment for homes and commercial buildings, plus related controls and services. Raytheon Technologies (now RTX) spun it off in 2020. Since then it has sold its fire, security and refrigeration units to focus on climate solutions, and cooling equipment for data centers has become a fast-growing part of the business.
How it makes money
Most of its revenue comes from selling HVAC equipment: residential and light-commercial systems, mainly in the Americas and Europe (including Viessmann heat pumps and boilers), and large commercial systems such as chillers for offices, hospitals and data centers. Aftermarket parts, repair, maintenance and monitoring services add steadier, recurring revenue. Full-year 2025 sales were about $21.75 billion, and in mid-2026 the company said it expected about $23 billion for 2026. It is exiting smaller units such as NORESCO and Riello.
What usually moves CARR
- Data-center cooling orders and the size of its order backlog
- US residential HVAC demand and how much stock dealers are holding
- Housing, renovation and European heat-pump markets
- Tariffs, raw-material costs and pricing
- Regulatory changes in refrigerants and energy efficiency