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CAVA · Analysis updated Nov 10, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Why is CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) stock moving?
CAVA missed Q3 2026 estimates on Nov 4, with EPS of $0.11 against $0.12 expected and sales of $356.4M against $358.5M expected. The stock fell intraday to $53.50 on Nov 5 on 8.9M shares, about 2.9 times the pre-earnings average of roughly 3.0M, but closed at $60.01, down 3.2% from $61.98. It then recovered to $62.35 on Nov 9 and closed at $60.39 on Nov 10, back near the Nov 3 close of $60.31. Analysts mostly kept positive ratings: five Buy/Outperform/Overweight calls with targets of $75 to $80, and three Neutral calls at $54 to $65 (Mizuho, BNP Paribas and Citigroup). The average listed target is about $71, roughly 18% above the last close, though Mizuho has cut its target twice since Oct 30. Management blamed the traffic slowdown on fresh produce concerns and gas prices, said those headwinds are easing, and reported strong store growth. Benzinga reported that full-year same-store sales guidance was raised. The main open question is whether traffic recovers, which the news items do not yet show in results.
News behind the analysis
- Mizuho Maintains Neutral on Cava Group, Lowers Price Target to $54Mizuho kept its Neutral rating and cut its price target to $54 from $56, its second cut after the Oct 30 move from $70.
- CAVA Group Reports Third Quarter 2026 ResultsCAVA released its Q3 2026 results, furnished to the SEC in an 8-K under Item 2.02 on Nov 4.
- Cava Group Q3 EPS $0.11 Misses $0.12 Estimate, Sales $356.436M Miss $358.543M EstimateQ3 EPS of $0.11 missed the $0.12 estimate and sales of $356.436M missed the $358.543M estimate.
- CAVA Posts Q3 Miss, Pressures Were External, Sales Recovering: AnalystsShares fell about 10% after the Q3 miss, and analysts cut price targets while citing improving sales and raised full-year same-store sales guidance.
- CAVA CEO Points to Fresh Produce Concerns, Gas Prices Behind Traffic SlowdownManagement attributed the traffic slowdown to fresh produce concerns and gas prices, and reported easing headwinds and strong store growth.
- Wall Street Analysts Update CAVA Group, Inc. Price TargetsAfter the Q3 report, several major financial institutions adjusted their price targets for CAVA while maintaining bullish ratings.
- RBC Capital Maintains Outperform on Cava Group, Lowers Price Target to $80RBC kept its Outperform rating and lowered its price target to $80.
- Keybanc Maintains Overweight on Cava Group, Lowers Price Target to $75KeyBanc kept its Overweight rating and lowered its price target to $75.
- Citigroup Maintains Neutral on Cava Group, Lowers Price Target to $65Citigroup kept its Neutral rating and lowered its price target to $65.
- Telsey Advisory Group Maintains Outperform on Cava Group, Lowers Price Target to $76Telsey Advisory Group kept its Outperform rating and lowered its price target to $76.
About CAVA Group, Inc.
CAVA Group runs CAVA, a chain of Mediterranean fast-casual restaurants. Guests build their own bowls and pitas. The chain is growing quickly: it reached its 500th restaurant in Q3 2026, about 20% more locations than a year earlier. It also sells its own dips and spreads in grocery stores.
How it makes money
Almost all revenue comes from food and drinks sold in restaurants the company owns itself, not through franchises. Digital orders (app, online and delivery) make up roughly 39% of sales. A small amount comes from CPG (consumer packaged goods: dips and spreads sold in grocery stores). In Q3 2026, restaurant revenue was about $354 million, up 22% from a year earlier, and restaurant-level profit margin was about 23%. Same-restaurant sales, meaning sales at locations open at least a year, grew about 3%. CAVA said a Cyclospora outbreak and wider worries about fresh produce cut those sales by about 1.5 percentage points.
What usually moves CAVA
- Same-restaurant sales and guest traffic trends
- Pace and success of new restaurant openings
- Restaurant-level profit margins (food and labor costs)
- Consumer spending on eating out
- Food safety incidents