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CENX · Analysis updated Nov 10, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Why is Century Aluminum Co (CENX) stock moving?
Century's Q3 2026 report on Nov 5 showed sequential growth. Net sales rose to $961.2M from $752.1M, mainly from the Grundartangi Line 2 restart, and adjusted EBITDA reached $331.6M. However, adjusted EPS of $2.58 missed the $2.72 estimate, sales were marginally below consensus, and management guided Q4 adjusted EBITDA lower, to $275-300M. The stock fell to a close of $30.07 on Nov 5 on heavy volume, with an intraday low of $29.75. It then rebounded to $33.47 on Nov 6 and to $36.62 on Nov 9 on volume of about 3.1M, and closed at $36.42 on Nov 10, roughly 21% above the Nov 5 close. Analyst coverage is mixed: Wells Fargo (Overweight, $71), UBS (Buy, $50), and B. Riley (Buy, $64) kept positive ratings with lower targets, while Barclays kept Equal-Weight and cut its target to $39. The Nov 6 shelf registration is a standard filing with no terms disclosed, but it signals possible future equity or debt issuance. The Venezuela aluminum cargo talks are a background trade item with no confirmed company impact. The company reported $1.16B in liquidity at Sep 30, which provides a cushion. The price rebound is ahead of the guided Q4 EBITDA decline, so the near-term picture depends on whether the rally holds and on realized metal prices.
News behind the analysis
- Century Aluminum Company Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial ResultsQ3 net sales rose to $961.2M from $752.1M on the Grundartangi Line 2 restart, and adjusted EBITDA reached $331.6M. Management guided Q4 adjusted EBITDA to $275-300M.
- Century Aluminum Q3 Adj. EPS $2.58 Misses $2.72 Estimate, Sales $961.200M Miss $961.600M EstimateAdjusted EPS and sales both came in slightly below consensus estimates. The results were released with the quarterly report.
- Century Aluminum Q3 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptFull transcript of the third-quarter 2026 earnings call, covering the results and outlook discussion.
- Barclays Maintains Equal-Weight Rating on Century Aluminum and Lowers Price TargetBarclays kept an Equal-Weight rating and cut its price target to $39 from $40.
- Wells Fargo Maintains Overweight on Century Aluminum, Lowers Price Target to $71Wells Fargo kept its Overweight rating and lowered its price target to $71 after the quarter.
- UBS Adjusts Price Target on Century Aluminum to $50 From $55, Keeps Buy RatingUBS trimmed its price target to $50 from $55 and retained its Buy rating.
- Century Aluminum Files Shelf Registration To Offer Common Stock, Preferred Stock, Debt And Other Securities From Time To Time; No Terms DisclosedA shelf registration allows future issuance of common stock, preferred stock and debt, with no specific terms disclosed yet. It is a standard filing that creates potential future dilution.
- B. Riley Securities Maintains Buy on Century Aluminum, Lowers Price Target to $64B. Riley kept its Buy rating and cut its price target to $64 from $72.
- US, Venezuela in Talks on Fresh Aluminum Cargo in Trade Revival - Bloomberg ExclusiveBloomberg reports that the US and Venezuela are discussing a fresh aluminum cargo as part of a trade revival. The report does not name Century Aluminum as a party.
About Century Aluminum Co
Century Aluminum is the largest producer of primary aluminum in the US. Its smelters are in Kentucky, South Carolina and Iceland, and it also owns an alumina refinery in Jamaica. It is also working with Emirates Global Aluminium on plans for a new Oklahoma smelter, which would be the first new US primary smelter since 1980.
How it makes money
Nearly all of its revenue comes from selling primary aluminum, such as standard ingot and value-added products like billet, to industrial customers. Prices are tied to global aluminum benchmarks (LME) plus regional premiums like the US Midwest premium, which tariffs on imports push up. It also sells some alumina from its Jamaican refinery. Net sales were about $2.5 billion in 2025, and quarterly sales reached roughly $750 million in Q2 2026. The company is also restarting idled capacity, including at its Mt. Holly smelter.
What usually moves CENX
- LME aluminum prices and US Midwest premium
- US Section 232 tariffs on imported aluminum
- Electricity and power contract costs
- Smelter restarts and new smelter project progress
- Alumina and raw material costs