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CG · Analysis updated Nov 10, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Why is The Carlyle Group Inc. Common Stock (CG) stock moving?
Carlyle beat Q3 estimates on November 5, with adjusted EPS of $1.12 against $1.00 expected and revenue of $994.5M against $946.5M, and management targets $60 billion of fundraising in 2026 while returning $24 billion to investors. The stock nonetheless fell from $42.75 on November 4 to $39.96 on November 5 (-6.5%) on heavy volume of 4.65M shares. It then recovered to $42.31 on November 9 and closed at $41.70 on November 10, with volume easing to 2.82M. Sell-side tone turned cautious after the print: UBS downgraded to Neutral with a $47 target, and Goldman, JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank, Barclays and Evercore all cut targets to between $42 and $62, averaging roughly $51 across the six updates. Goldman and Deutsche still rate the stock Buy and Barclays Overweight, so the views are split. The SEI private markets fund and management's 2027-28 fundraising outlook are constructive, but the ratings and target cuts show that analysts see less upside than before. The price sits inside its 30-day range of about $38.26 to $42.90.
News behind the analysis
- SEI and Carlyle Advance Strategic Relationship with Launch of SEI-Carlyle Private Markets FundSEI Investments and The Carlyle Group announced a strategic relationship to launch a new private markets fund aimed at wealth and retirement investors.
- Goldman Sachs Maintains Buy on Carlyle Group, Lowers Price Target to $58Goldman Sachs kept its Buy rating on Carlyle but cut its price target to $58.
- UBS Downgrades Carlyle Group to Neutral, Lowers Price Target to $47UBS downgraded Carlyle from Buy to Neutral and set a $47 price target.
- JP Morgan Maintains Neutral on Carlyle Group, Lowers Price Target to $62JP Morgan kept a Neutral rating on Carlyle and lowered its price target to $62.
- Carlyle Outlines Growth Strategy and Fundraising OutlookCarlyle outlined its growth plans, including expectations for intensified fundraising in 2027-28 and key investment focus areas.
- Deutsche Bank Adjusts Carlyle Group Price TargetDeutsche Bank cut its price target on Carlyle to $48 from $51 while maintaining a Buy rating.
- Barclays Maintains Overweight on Carlyle Group, Lowers Price Target to $48Barclays kept its Overweight rating on Carlyle and lowered its price target to $48.
- Evercore ISI Group Maintains In-Line on Carlyle Group, Lowers Price Target to $42Evercore ISI kept an In-Line rating on Carlyle and cut its price target to $42, the lowest target among the recent updates.
- Carlyle Group Q3 Adj. EPS $1.12 Beats $1.00 Estimate, Sales $994.500M Beat $946.491M EstimateCarlyle reported third-quarter adjusted EPS of $1.12 and revenue of $994.5M, both ahead of analyst estimates.
- Carlyle Group Targets $60 Billion Fundraising in 2026 as Inflows RiseCarlyle is targeting $60 billion of fundraising in 2026 as inflows rise, though shares fell on the day despite the Q3 beat.
About The Carlyle Group Inc. Common Stock
The Carlyle Group is a global private-markets investment firm based in Washington, D.C. and New York, with roughly $479 billion of assets under management as of September 2026. It runs three segments: Global Private Equity (buyouts, growth, real estate and infrastructure), Global Credit, and Carlyle AlpInvest (secondaries, co-investments and fund-of-funds). It is known as one of the longest-established names in private equity.
How it makes money
Carlyle's steadiest income is management fees. It charges these on about $334 billion of fee-earning assets (approximate, as of mid-2026) that pension funds, sovereign funds, insurers and, more and more, wealthy individuals invest with it. It also earns performance fees, called carried interest, which is a share of the profits when its funds sell investments at a gain. These fees can swing widely from quarter to quarter, and in some quarters they turn negative when the value of fund holdings falls. Carlyle also earns transaction fees and returns on its own money invested in its funds, and it pays a quarterly dividend (currently $0.35 per share).
What usually moves CG
- Fundraising and growth in fee-earning assets
- Pace of deal exits and carried-interest realizations
- Private credit growth and credit quality
- Interest rates and M&A/IPO market conditions
- Expansion into wealth/retail investor channels