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CMI · Analysis updated Nov 10, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Why is Cummins Inc. (CMI) stock moving?
Cummins reported record Q3 EBITDA of 18.9% of sales and EPS of $8.25, which matched expectations, but sales of $9.44B missed the $9.85B estimate. Management trimmed 2026 revenue growth to about 10% from 10% to 13%, citing weaker pickup truck demand in North America that is expected to persist through year-end, while holding EBITDA margin near 18.2% and reaffirming the goal of returning 50% of operating cash flow to shareholders. Power generation and AI data center demand were called exceptionally strong. The stock fell from about $531 on Oct 28 to a low of $443.62 on Nov 5, the day of results, on volume of 3.39M, about 2.5 times the late-October average. It has since recovered to $454.18 on Nov 10 and is trading near its VWAP of $454.69, while daily volume has eased to 1.49M. Following results, analysts broadly cut price targets, including UBS to $675, Evercore to $617, Barclays to $600, Truist to $637, Wells Fargo to $520, CICC to $554 from $781 and JPMorgan to $465 from $600. Most kept Buy or Overweight ratings, so targets remain above the current price, but the downward revisions signal lower earnings expectations for the pickup segment. Near-term direction depends on whether the pickup weakness and the sales miss weigh on sentiment, against the data center growth story.
News behind the analysis
- Cummins Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial ResultsCummins reported record third-quarter EBITDA and EPS, with revenue up 13% to $9.4B. Full-year revenue growth guidance was trimmed to about 10% (from 10% to 13%) because of weaker North American pickup truck demand.
- Cummins Narrows FY2026 Sales Guidance from $37.037B-$38.047B to $37.037B vs $37.673B EstThe company narrowed its 2026 sales guidance to $37.037B, below the $37.673B consensus estimate.
- Cummins Q3 EPS $8.25, Inline, Sales $9.438B Miss $9.850B EstimateThird-quarter EPS of $8.25 matched expectations, but sales of $9.438B missed the $9.850B estimate. Favorable discrete tax items added $0.54 per share.
- Cummins Rides AI Data Center Boom to Record Profits, but Trouble Brews in Pickup TrucksRecord profits are being driven by AI data center demand for power generation, while weaker pickup truck orders forced a cut to the 2026 sales outlook.
- UBS Maintains Buy on Cummins, Lowers Price Target to $675UBS kept its Buy rating and cut its price target on Cummins to $675.
- Evercore ISI Group Maintains Outperform on Cummins, Lowers Price Target to $617Evercore ISI kept its Outperform rating and lowered its price target on Cummins to $617.
- CICC Research Adjusts Cummins Price Target to $554 From $781CICC Research cut its price target on Cummins to $554 from $781, the steepest reduction among the reported targets.
- Barclays Maintains Overweight on Cummins, Lowers Price Target to $600Barclays kept its Overweight rating and lowered its price target to $600 from $675.
- Wells Fargo Maintains Overweight on Cummins, Lowers Price Target to $520Wells Fargo kept its Overweight rating and cut its price target to $520 from $608.
- Truist Securities Maintains Buy on Cummins, Lowers Price Target to $637Truist Securities kept its Buy rating and lowered its price target to $637 from $779.
About Cummins Inc.
Cummins is an Indiana-based maker of diesel and natural-gas engines, generators and related parts, used mainly in trucks, buses, construction and mining equipment, and backup power. Its standby generators for data centers have become a major growth area, and it is also investing in battery and electric powertrains through its Accelera unit.
How it makes money
It sells engines and powertrains to truck and equipment makers (Engine segment, roughly a quarter of sales). It also sells components such as aftertreatment systems, turbochargers, fuel systems, axles and brakes (Components, roughly a quarter). The Distribution segment sells parts and service through its dealer network (roughly a third of external sales), and Power Systems makes high-horsepower engines and generators (roughly an eighth of external sales, but its most profitable segment). Accelera, the zero-emissions unit, is small and still losing money. Quarterly revenue is roughly $9.4 billion as of Q3 2026.
What usually moves CMI
- North American heavy- and medium-duty truck cycle
- Data center backup power demand
- Construction and truck demand in China
- Emissions regulations and new engine launches
- Spending and losses in zero-emissions technology