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CNC · Analysis updated Nov 10, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Why is Centene Corporation (CNC) stock moving?
Centene's Q3 2026 results (reported Oct 27) were the main fundamental event: adjusted diluted EPS of $0.58 against a GAAP loss of $(0.14), a 92.7% health benefits ratio, a $1.1 billion debt reduction since June 30, and a raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of greater than $5.20. Against that, operating cash flow was negative at $(3.67) billion in the quarter, and marketplace membership fell to 3.40 million from 5.83 million a year earlier. The stock then rose to a $76.01 close on Nov 4 on 15.2 million shares, about 2.5 times its typical daily volume, with no specific company news in the provided items to explain the move. It gave back most of that gain, and on Nov 5 the Justice Department intervened in a False Claims Act whistleblower suit alleging fraudulent Medicare Advantage enrollment practices, while the stock closed at $74.17. The shares then fell to a $68.54 close on Nov 9 before a 2.4% rebound to $70.19 on Nov 10 with 6.2 million shares traded. Since Nov 2 the stock has ranged from a $64.85 low to a $78.08 high. Analysts raised price targets across the board between Oct 28 and Nov 2, with targets of $71 to $87 from most brokers and Goldman at $62, and most ratings are Hold or Equal-Weight/Neutral. The November 10 Senate letter on coverage terminations adds regulatory scrutiny, and the Medicaid expansion news is a possible longer-term membership tailwind. Overall, the evidence is mixed: a raised earnings outlook and positive target revisions versus an open legal and regulatory overhang and weak cash flow.
News behind the analysis
- Congressional Inquiry into Centene's Role in Health Coverage TerminationsU.S. Senators sent a letter to Centene and other major insurers demanding information on their cooperation with the administration in terminating coverage for 760,000 enrollees.
- 'State Democratic wins make Medicaid expansion a possibility for more than a million people' - STAT NewsRecent state election results could make Medicaid expansion possible for more than a million people, a potential enrollment tailwind for Medicaid managed care insurers such as Centene.
- US Department of Justice Intervenes in Whistleblower Lawsuit Against Centene CorporationThe U.S. government intervened in a False Claims Act lawsuit alleging Centene engaged in fraudulent Medicare Advantage enrollment practices.
- Ambetter from Centene Reports Lowest Average Rate Increase in Missouri ACA MarketplaceMissouri finalized 2027 marketplace rates, with Ambetter from Centene's Home State Health Plan showing the smallest average premium increase in the state at just under 10%.
- Goldman Sachs Adjusts Centene Price Target to $62 From $56Goldman Sachs raised its Centene price target from $56 to $62, which remains below the recent share price.
- Truist Securities Reiterates Buy on Centene, Raises Price Target to $82Truist reiterated its Buy rating and raised its Centene price target from $80 to $82.
- Deutsche Bank Adjusts Centene Price Target to $87 From $85Deutsche Bank raised its Centene price target from $85 to $87 while maintaining a Buy rating.
- Wells Fargo Maintains Equal-Weight Rating on Centene and Raises Price TargetWells Fargo kept its Equal-Weight rating on Centene and raised its price target from $69 to $75.
- J.P. Morgan Maintains Hold Rating on Centene and Raises Price Target to $75J.P. Morgan maintained its Hold rating on Centene and raised its price target from $67 to $75.
- UBS Maintains Neutral on Centene, Raises Price Target to $78UBS kept its Neutral rating on Centene and raised its price target from $70 to $78.
About Centene Corporation
Centene is a St. Louis-based health insurer and the largest US Medicaid managed-care company, running government-sponsored health plans in many states. It is unusual for how much it relies on government programs (Medicaid, ACA Marketplace exchange plans and Medicare) rather than employer insurance, and it brings in roughly $190 billion a year in revenue (approximate, 2025–2026).
How it makes money
Most of its revenue comes from premiums paid by state governments and the federal government, plus individual members, to cover people's medical care. Centene keeps the difference between those premiums and the medical and administrative costs it pays out. Medicaid is the largest segment, roughly half or more of revenue. The rest comes from ACA Marketplace (Ambetter) plans, Medicare Advantage and stand-alone Part D drug plans, and smaller specialty services. The company lost money in 2025 (a net loss of about $6.7 billion) as medical costs rose. In 2026 it has been working to recover, with a health benefits ratio (the share of premiums spent on care) around 90.75% and reduced debt.
What usually moves CNC
- Medical cost trends and the health benefits ratio
- State Medicaid rates and enrollment redeterminations
- ACA Marketplace subsidies and risk-adjustment payments
- Medicare Advantage rates and star ratings
- Federal health-policy and budget changes