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COP · Analysis updated Nov 10, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Why is ConocoPhillips (COP) stock moving?
COP closed at $135.59 on Nov 10, about 12% below the $154.03 close on Oct 30 and close to the Nov 10 intraday low of $131.12. The decline was steady and came on rising volume, with the heaviest session at 11.4M shares on Nov 4, the day before Q3 results. Fundamentals were strong: adjusted EPS of $3.27 beat the $2.97 consensus, sales of $20.06B beat the $18.18B estimate, and GAAP profit was $4.00B ($3.34 per share). The company generated $7.2B of operating cash flow, raised the quarterly dividend 11% to $0.93, and set a target of a $7B free cash flow inflection by 2029. Willow remains on track for 2029 and the LNG offtake portfolio was expanded. Analysts are mostly constructive: Truist kept Hold with a $142 target, JPMorgan lifted its target to $142, and Wells Fargo kept Overweight at $185 despite a cut. The main drawback is that the shares did not respond to the beat: they gapped up to $140.79 on Nov 5 but closed at $135.46, and the sell-off began before results. The price is still weak, and the targets imply limited upside near term, so the outlook depends on whether earnings strength can offset the pressure on the share price.
News behind the analysis
- ConocoPhillips Provides Operational Update on Willow Project and LNG ExpansionConocoPhillips confirmed the Willow project remains on track for 2029 and reported an expansion of its contracted LNG offtake portfolio.
- Truist Securities Maintains Hold on ConocoPhillips, Raises Price Target to $142Truist kept its Hold rating and raised its price target from $136 to $142, about 5% above the Nov 10 close.
- Wells Fargo Maintains Overweight on ConocoPhillips, Lowers Price Target to $185Wells Fargo kept its Overweight rating but cut its price target to $185, still well above the current share price.
- JPMorgan Adjusts ConocoPhillips Price Target to $142 from $139JPMorgan raised its price target on ConocoPhillips to $142 from $139.
- ConocoPhillips Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial ResultsConocoPhillips reported Q3 2026 profit of $4.001 billion, or $3.34 per share, on a GAAP basis.
- Update: ConocoPhillips Q3 Adj. EPS $3.27 Beats $2.97 Estimate, Sales $20.057B Beat $18.175B EstimateAdjusted EPS of $3.27 beat the $2.97 consensus, and sales of $20.057B beat the $18.175B estimate.
- ConocoPhillips Targets $7 Billion Free Cash Flow Inflection by 2029, Raises Dividend 11%The company generated $7.2 billion of operating cash flow in Q3 and targets a $7 billion free cash flow inflection by 2029.
- ConocoPhillips Raises Quarterly Dividend by 11%The quarterly dividend rises 11%, from 84 cents to 93 cents per share.
About ConocoPhillips
ConocoPhillips is a Houston-based company that finds and produces oil and natural gas. It is one of the world's largest such companies, with operations in about 15 countries. Unlike integrated majors, it has no refining or gas-station business, and it produced roughly 2.2–2.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2026.
How it makes money
It sells the crude oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids and liquefied natural gas (LNG) it produces, so its revenue rises and falls with commodity prices. About two-thirds of its output comes from the US Lower 48, mainly the Permian Basin plus the Eagle Ford and Bakken shale fields. The rest comes from Alaska, Canada, Norway, Libya, Qatar LNG and Asia-Pacific assets such as Australia LNG and Malaysia. In 2026 it planned to return about 45% of its operating cash flow to shareholders through dividends (currently $0.84 per share each quarter) and share buybacks.
What usually moves COP
- Crude oil and natural gas prices
- Middle East and other geopolitical disruptions, such as limits on Qatar LNG output
- Production volumes and Permian shale performance
- Capital spending discipline and cost cuts
- Dividends, buybacks and asset sales or acquisitions