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LPX · Analysis updated Nov 10, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Why is Louisiana-Pacific Corp. (LPX) stock moving?
Louisiana-Pacific reported Q3 2026 results on Nov 3 that beat expectations: adjusted EPS of $0.39 vs. a $0.21 estimate, sales of $691M vs. $671.6M, and record siding sales of $473M (up 7%) with a return to volume growth. Guidance is weaker. Q4 consolidated adjusted EBITDA is guided to $30-40M, and full-year adjusted EBITDA to $270-280M, with OSB losses of $(35)M in Q4 and $(95)M for the year. A later correction states that the headline sales guidance figures were segment revenue, so the large gaps versus estimates should not be read as straight consolidated misses. The stock opened at $78 on Nov 3, reversed to close at $73.79 on heavy volume (about 2.5M shares vs. roughly 1M typical), then rebounded to $78.82 on Nov 4 on 2.9M shares. Since then it has eased to $75.53 on Nov 10, with the Nov 5 to Nov 10 range at $75-80. Three brokers kept positive ratings on Nov 4 (Barclays Overweight, RBC Outperform, Truist Buy), with price targets of $84-86, roughly 11-14% above the Nov 10 close, though two of the three were cut. A $0.30 quarterly dividend was declared, with a record date of Nov 20. Balancing the record siding results and analyst support against weak Q4 EBITDA guidance and a large OSB loss, the near-term picture is mixed.
News behind the analysis
- Louisiana-Pacific Corporation Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial ResultsQ3 2026 siding net sales rose 7% to $473M, a record, and net income increased $14M year over year to $23M. Adjusted EBITDA was flat at $82M.
- Louisiana-Pacific Q3 Adj. EPS $0.39 Beats $0.21 Estimate, Sales $691.000M Beat $671.588M EstimateAdjusted diluted EPS of $0.39 beat the $0.21 consensus, and sales of $691M beat the $671.6M estimate.
- Louisiana-Pacific Q3 Siding Net Sales $473M, Up 7%, A RecordSiding returned to volume growth in Q3 and set a new record for net sales, according to management.
- Louisiana-Pacific Sees Q4 Adj. EBITDA $30M-$40M, OSB Adj. EBITDA $(35)MQ4 consolidated adjusted EBITDA is guided to $30-40M, with OSB adjusted EBITDA expected at a $(35)M loss. Q4 siding adjusted EBITDA is guided to $80-90M.
- Louisiana-Pacific Sees FY26 Adj. EBITDA $270M-$280M, OSB Adj. EBITDA $(95)MFull-year 2026 consolidated adjusted EBITDA is guided to $270-280M, with OSB adjusted EBITDA at a $(95)M loss. Siding adjusted EBITDA is guided to $415-425M.
- CORRECTION: Louisiana-Pacific Reported Annual and Q4 Segment Revenue Guidance Which Was Erroneously Posted As Revenue OutlookA correction clarifies that the annual and Q4 figures are segment revenue guidance, not consolidated revenue outlook. This affects how the sales guidance versus estimates headlines should be read.
- Barclays Maintains Overweight on Louisiana-Pacific, Lowers Price Target to $86Barclays kept its Overweight rating and cut its price target to $86.
- RBC Capital Maintains Outperform on Louisiana-Pacific, Raises Price Target to $85RBC Capital kept its Outperform rating and raised its price target to $85.
- Truist Securities Reiterates Buy on Louisiana-Pacific, Lowers Price Target to $84Truist reiterated its Buy rating and lowered its price target to $84.
- LP Building Solutions Announces Quarterly DividendThe board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.30 per share, payable Dec 4, 2026, to holders of record as of Nov 20, 2026.
About Louisiana-Pacific Corp.
Louisiana-Pacific (LP Building Solutions) is a Nashville-based maker of engineered wood building products. Its best-known product is LP SmartSide engineered wood siding, and the company has been shifting its mix away from commodity panels toward siding and other branded products.
How it makes money
Most of its sales come from Siding (LP SmartSide trim and siding, sold for new homes, remodeling and sheds). In Q3 2026 Siding brought in a record of about $473 million of the roughly $691 million total, close to 70%. Most of the rest comes from oriented strand board (OSB), a commodity structural panel. It sells plain OSB as well as branded versions such as LP Structural Solutions and its weather-resistant sheathing. OSB earnings rise and fall sharply with panel prices, and the segment was losing money in 2026. A smaller South America business sells OSB and siding in Chile and Brazil.
What usually moves LPX
- US housing starts and repair/remodel spending
- OSB commodity panel prices
- SmartSide siding volumes and price increases
- Distributor inventory levels (stocking and destocking)
- Mortgage rates and wood/resin input costs