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MSTR −4.13% on Nov 12 · Analysis updated Nov 12, 2026, 11:45 AM ET
Why is Strategy (MicroStrategy) (MSTR) stock down?
MSTR is trading near $117.30 midday on Nov 12, down about 4% from Wednesday's $122.35 close. It hit an intraday low of $112.32, a new low for the 30-day data set, and the day's volume of about 10M shares by 11:45 is running at a pace near recent sessions. The new driver is MSCI's confirmation that it will delete Strategy from its global indexes, including MSCI USA, after the Nov 30 close. Strategy says index funds hold about 13M shares, or 3.1% of basic shares, and calls the impact immaterial. Analyst estimates of forced selling run from $2.8B to $8.8B if other index providers follow. The larger worry is whether a weaker stock premium makes it harder to fund Bitcoin buying through share sales. Strategy bought 1,036 BTC for $81.9M last week, using stock sales, and now holds 850,364 BTC at an average cost of $75,456. Bitcoin near $74,000 is below that cost, and spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.3B of outflows last week. The stock is down about 17% from Oct 22 and 21% over the past month. Analyst targets of $180 to $250 sit far above the price, and the Strong Buy consensus is a cushion, but the trend, Bitcoin weakness and the index-removal date point to continued pressure into Nov 30. The stock may stabilize if the forced selling is absorbed and Bitcoin recovers.
News behind the analysis
- MSCI to remove Strategy and Metaplanet from its indexesMSCI will drop Strategy from the MSCI USA Index at the Nov 30 close under its new non-operating company rules. Strategy says index funds hold about 13M shares, or 3.1% of its basic shares.
- Strategy Shares Fall About 6% After MSCI Confirms Index RemovalMSTR traded about 6% lower on Thursday at $114.86 after MSCI confirmed the removal. Strategy's market cap is above $40B and its float-adjusted value is $37.3B, making it the largest constituent affected.
- Strategy's BTC-buying model at risk after MSCI's index exclusionAnalysts say the exclusion could hamper Strategy's ability to raise capital for Bitcoin purchases. One estimate cites $2.8B+ of selling pressure, and $11B+ if other indexes follow.
- Strategy to be removed from MSCI indexes: What are the risks for Bitcoin?Describes the removal as a sentiment and flow risk rather than a solvency event. It notes JPMorgan flagged up to $8.8B of selling if other index providers follow, and that nothing forces Strategy to sell Bitcoin.
- MSCI Drops Michael Saylor's Strategy (MSTR): Is Bitcoin Price at Risk?MSTR closed Wednesday at $122.35. Since Oct 9, 2025 MSTR has fallen 63% against 40% for Bitcoin, and the article flags $116.47 as a level to watch.
- MSCI drops Strategy from indexes: What it means for BitcoinBitcoin slipped to about $73,868 as MSTR fell in after-hours trading following the MSCI decision. Forced selling could weaken the stock's valuation and make capital raises harder.
- Strategy (MSTR) stock falls as MSCI exclusion threatens passive fund outflowsMSTR fell over 6% in premarket trading amid a prolonged crypto decline. Shares are down about 22% this year against about 17% for Bitcoin.
- Strategy Buys $82M in Bitcoin as STRC Tokenized Stock Adds New TwistStrategy bought 1,036 BTC for $81.9M, bringing holdings to 850,364 BTC. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.3B of net outflows last week.
- Michael Saylor's Strategy buys another 1,036 bitcoin for $82 millionThe purchases were funded by at-the-market sales of MSTR shares: 2,051,348 shares for about $283.8M last week. Total holdings cost about $64.2B, an average of $75,456 per BTC.
- Strategy (MSTR) Stock Price, Chart & NewsThe average analyst rating is Strong Buy, with a 12-month target of $233.27. B. Riley cut its target to $180 from $195 but kept its Buy rating.
About Strategy Inc Common Stock Class A
Strategy Inc, formerly MicroStrategy, calls itself the world's first "Bitcoin Treasury Company". It holds about 848,500 bitcoin as of late 2026, roughly 4% of all bitcoin that will ever exist and the most held by any institution. It buys bitcoin with money raised by selling new shares, convertible debt and a family of preferred stocks it calls "Digital Credit" (STRF, STRC, STRK, STRD).
How it makes money
Most of its reported profit or loss comes from changes in the market value of its bitcoin, so earnings swing widely from quarter to quarter. For example, it reported a net income of about $19 billion in Q3 2026 after bitcoin rose from about $58,700 to about $83,600. It also runs a long-standing business-analytics software unit, but that unit's revenue is small (likely well under $1 billion a year) next to the value of its bitcoin. It uses cash reserves (about $5 billion in USD assets) and keeps raising capital to pay interest and preferred dividends, and it has occasionally sold small amounts of bitcoin to fund dividends.
What usually moves MSTR
- Bitcoin price moves, which the stock tends to amplify
- Premium or discount of the share price to the value of its bitcoin (mNAV)
- Share dilution and the pace of capital raising
- Demand for and dividend costs of its preferred stock
- Crypto regulation and institutional adoption