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NVAX · Analysis updated Nov 10, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Why is Novavax Inc (NVAX) stock moving?
Novavax's Q3 2026 report on Nov 5 was a clear beat: revenue of $68.3M against a $50.4M estimate, EPS of $(0.19) against $(0.36), and FY2026 sales guidance raised to $385M-$415M from $235M-$275M, above the $380.3M consensus. Management also said it is exploring a cut of more than 50% to its operating footprint and expects headcount below half of Q1 2026 levels, supporting the 2028 lean-model target. The Sanofi partnership added a $125M milestone on Oct 29, with a further $75M due on tech transfer in mid-2027 and $225M on a U.S. launch of a flu-COVID combination vaccine. The stock did not follow the results: it fell 8.2% on Nov 5 (10.65 to 9.78), rebounded to 10.78 on Nov 6, peaked at a 11.195 high on Nov 9, then closed at 10.20 on Nov 10, down 6.3% on about 12.3M shares, the highest volume in the 30-day window. Analyst moves are mixed: TD Cowen raised its target to $11 from $9, Cantor reaffirmed Buy at $18, and B. Riley kept Buy but cut its target to $16 from $18 on Nov 6 and again reported on Nov 8. Revenue appears heavily milestone-driven and tied to Sanofi, which limits the durability of the guidance raise. The 10-Q was filed alongside the results, but its text was not provided.
News behind the analysis
- B. Riley Adjusts Price Target on Novavax to $16B. Riley cut its Novavax price target to $16 from $18 while keeping a Buy rating.
- B. Riley Securities Reiterates Buy on Novavax, Lowers Price Target to $16B. Riley reiterated its Buy rating on Novavax after the Q3 report and lowered its price target to $16.
- Novavax Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Operational HighlightsNovavax reported Q3 2026 revenue of $68.3M and a narrower net loss, and raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance.
- Novavax Exec Says Co Is Exploring An Over 50% Reduction To Operating Footprint Via Consolidation Of Buildings And Laboratories; Says Co Expects To Be In A Position To Further Decrease Total Spend To Reach Its 2028 Lean Operating Model Target; Says Co Anticipates Having Less Than Half The Headcount As Compared To Q1 2026A Novavax executive said the company is exploring a cut of more than 50% to its operating footprint and expects headcount below half of Q1 2026 levels.
- Novavax Q3 EPS $(0.19) Beats $(0.36) Estimate, Sales $68.298M Beat $50.430M EstimateNovavax beat Q3 estimates, with EPS of $(0.19) against $(0.36) expected and sales of $68.298M against $50.430M expected.
- Novavax Raises FY2026 Sales Guidance from $235.000M-$275.000M to $385.000M-$415.000M vs $380.285M EstNovavax raised its FY2026 sales guidance to $385M-$415M from $235M-$275M, above the $380.3M consensus estimate.
- TD Cowen Raises Novavax Price Target to $11TD Cowen raised its Novavax price target to $11 from $9.
- Novavax Earns $125 Million Milestone as Sanofi Launches Phase 3 Influenza-COVID-19 Combination Vaccine Trial in EuropeNovavax earned a $125M milestone payment as Sanofi started a Phase 3 flu-COVID combination trial using Nuvaxovid, with a further $75M milestone tied to tech transfer in mid-2027.
- Novavax Earns $125M Milestone Payment With Initiation Of Sanofi's Phase 3 Influence-COVID-19 Combination Vaccine Study Through NuvaxovidBenzinga reported the same $125M Sanofi milestone payment tied to the start of the Phase 3 combination vaccine study.
- Cantor Fitzgerald Maintains Buy Rating on NovavaxCantor Fitzgerald reaffirmed its Buy rating and $18 price target on Novavax.
About Novavax Inc
Novavax is a Maryland-based vaccine company known for Nuvaxovid, its protein-based COVID-19 vaccine, and for Matrix-M, an adjuvant (an ingredient that strengthens immune response) that is also used in the R21 malaria vaccine. It has moved away from selling vaccines itself to a leaner model of licensing its technology to partners such as Sanofi and Pfizer, while keeping a small in-house research pipeline that includes a C. difficile vaccine.
How it makes money
Most of its revenue now comes from partners rather than its own product sales. That includes milestone payments, royalties, and sales of adjuvant and other supplies under deals like the Sanofi agreement. Sanofi sells Nuvaxovid and pays royalties in the high-teens to low-twenties percent range, and further milestones are possible, such as roughly $75M tied to a manufacturing transfer. The 2026 Matrix-M license with Pfizer brought a $30M upfront payment, with up to about $500M more possible in milestones, plus royalties. Novavax put 2026 adjusted revenue at roughly $235–275M. The company is still losing money and aims to reach non-GAAP profitability as early as 2028.
What usually moves NVAX
- Sanofi milestones and COVID/flu combination vaccine progress
- New Matrix-M licensing deals and partner trial results
- COVID-19 vaccine demand and US vaccine policy
- Cost cuts, cash runway and convertible debt
- Shareholder activism and governance changes