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NVS · Analysis updated Nov 10, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Why is Novartis AG (NVS) stock moving?
NVS closed at 163.26 on Nov 10, up about 8% from the 151.12 close on Oct 23 and holding a 159-165 range since Oct 29. Volume has been ordinary (about 1.3M to 2.4M shares a day) since the Oct 23 selloff, which came on the heaviest volume in the window (4.36M), so the recent rebound has not come with a volume surge. The news flow is mixed. The main negatives are the failed ORION-4 Phase III trial and the decision to discontinue pelacarsen (Nov 2 and Nov 7), an FDA investigation into tumor risks linked to Zolgensma (Nov 8, after nine tumor reports on Nov 6), Deutsche Bank's Sell downgrade (Oct 30), and BioArctic's termination of a collaboration (Nov 3). Against these, RBC raised its target to CHF130 (Oct 28), ianalumab showed two-year improvements in Sjögren's disease (Nov 10), Novartis topped the Access to Medicine Index (Nov 10), and it signed a new strategic collaboration with Dren Bio (Oct 29). The stock barely reacted to the pelacarsen failure, which suggests the setback was largely priced in or is seen as contained. The Zolgensma review is the main open risk, since its outcome is still unknown.
News behind the analysis
- Novartis Presents Two-Year Data for Ianalumab in Sjögren's DiseaseNovartis presented two-year clinical data showing continued improvement in disease activity for patients with Sjögren's disease.
- Novartis Ranks First in 2026 Access to Medicine IndexNovartis retained the top position in the 2026 Access to Medicine Index, the first company to rank first across all technical areas since the index began in 2008.
- FDA Investigating Tumor Risks Linked to Novartis' Zolgensma Gene TherapyThe FDA is investigating potential tumor risks tied to Zolgensma after reports of malignancy in treated patients.
- Novartis Discontinues Development of Pelacarsen for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular DiseaseNovartis is abandoning development of pelacarsen for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease after a late-stage trial setback.
- Novartis Reports Tumor Cases Linked to Zolgensma Gene TherapyNovartis identified nine reports of tumors in patients treated with Zolgensma since its 2019 approval, with two cases showing evidence of a link to the treatment.
- Schrödinger Amends Collaboration Agreement with NovartisSchrödinger replaced previous programs with two new ones in its Novartis collaboration, raising potential milestone payments to $1.424B.
- Novartis Ends Research Collaboration with BioArcticNovartis has officially terminated its research collaboration with the Swedish biopharmaceutical company BioArctic.
- Novartis Phase III ORION-4 Trial of Pelacarsen Misses Primary EndpointNovartis announced that its Phase III ORION-4 trial of pelacarsen did not meet its primary endpoint.
- Deutsche Bank Downgrades Novartis to SellDeutsche Bank downgraded Novartis to Sell, a negative rating change from a major broker.
- RBC Raises Price Target on Novartis to CHF130RBC Capital Markets raised its Novartis price target from CHF120 to CHF130 while keeping a Sector Perform rating.
About Novartis AG
Novartis is a Swiss drugmaker based in Basel that develops and sells prescription medicines worldwide, and its shares trade in the US as ADRs on the NYSE. Since spinning off its Sandoz generics unit in 2023, it has focused only on innovative branded drugs in four main areas: heart and metabolic disease, immunology, neuroscience and cancer (including radioligand therapies like Pluvicto).
How it makes money
Almost all of its revenue comes from selling patented prescription drugs to hospitals, pharmacies and health systems. Key products include Entresto (heart failure), Cosentyx (immunology), Kesimpta (multiple sclerosis), Kisqali (breast cancer), Leqvio (cholesterol) and Pluvicto (prostate cancer). Sales run at roughly $14–15 billion per quarter (Q3 2026 was about $14.5–15 billion, up about 4% at constant currency). The US is its largest market, and Europe is the next biggest. Novartis pays a sizable annual dividend and buys back shares.
What usually moves NVS
- Patent expirations and generic competition (e.g., Entresto)
- Clinical trial results and drug approvals
- Growth of key brands like Kisqali, Kesimpta and Pluvicto
- US drug pricing policy and tariffs
- Swiss franc / US dollar exchange rates