moneyheap
NWE · Analysis updated Nov 10, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Why is NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. Common Stock (NWE) stock moving?
Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of $0.58 missed the $0.73 estimate and fell from $0.79 a year earlier, while GAAP net income dropped to $30.7M on a $6.1M Colstrip loss, depreciation and interest costs. Revenue of $423.8M beat the $412.5M estimate, and management affirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $3.68-$3.83, with the midpoint slightly above the $3.73 consensus. The company also reaffirmed a $683M capital plan, a 4-6% long-term EPS and rate base growth target, and a $0.67 quarterly dividend payable Dec 1. The pending all-stock merger with Black Hills is expected to get Montana Public Service Commission consideration before Nov 12, which is the main near-term catalyst. The price has risen from 77.13 (Oct 22) to 84.92 (Nov 10), about 10%, with a gap higher on Nov 4 on roughly 991K shares and 1.24M shares on Nov 5, and a new 30-day high of 85.23 intraday on Nov 10. The Nov 9 Benzinga piece flags overbought RSI readings, so the rally is extended after a quick run and short-term pullback risk is elevated. The earnings miss and Colstrip cost pressure are offset by affirmed guidance, the dividend and merger progress.
News behind the analysis
- Top 3 Utilities Stocks That May Crash This MonthBenzinga flags NorthWestern Energy, Middlesex Water and California Water Service as showing overbought RSI readings, a momentum warning for short-term traders.
- NorthWestern Energy Group Q3 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptManagement discussed third-quarter 2026 results, which included a Colstrip-related earnings headwind and the pending Black Hills merger.
- NorthWestern Energy Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial ResultsNet income fell to $30.7M ($0.50 per diluted share) from $38.2M a year earlier, mainly due to a $6.1M Colstrip loss, depreciation and interest; 2026 guidance of $3.68-$3.83 was affirmed.
- NorthWestern Energy Group Affirms FY2026 Adj EPS Guidance of $3.68-$3.83 vs $3.73 EstThe company reaffirmed its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance range, with the midpoint slightly above the $3.73 consensus estimate.
- NorthWestern Energy Group Q3 Adj. EPS $0.58 Misses $0.73 Estimate, Sales $423.800M Beat $412.466M EstimateThird-quarter adjusted EPS of $0.58 missed the $0.73 estimate, while revenue of $423.8M beat the $412.5M estimate.
- Nebraska PSC Reminds Customers of Cold Weather Rule for 2026-27 Winter SeasonThe Nebraska Public Service Commission reminded natural gas customers, including NorthWestern Energy's, of the Cold Weather Rule providing extra time for winter bill payments.
About NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. Common Stock
NorthWestern Energy Group is a regulated utility based in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. It supplies electricity and/or natural gas to roughly 760,000+ customers in Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska and Yellowstone National Park. It is a small-to-mid-sized utility that serves a large, thinly populated area. It owns power plants, including a share of the coal-fired Colstrip plant in Montana, as well as transmission lines and gas pipelines. In 2025 it announced an all-stock merger with Black Hills Corp; that deal was described as pending.
How it makes money
It earns revenue by selling and delivering electricity and natural gas. State regulators in Montana, South Dakota and Nebraska set its rates, and federal regulators oversee its transmission business. The electric segment brings in most of the revenue, roughly three-quarters, and natural gas makes up most of the rest. Total yearly revenue is about $1.6–1.7 billion. Profit growth comes mainly from investing in power plants, power lines and pipelines, which regulators then let it recover, along with an allowed return, through customer rates.
What usually moves NWE
- Rate case decisions by Montana and South Dakota regulators
- Interest rates and the cost of borrowing
- Progress and terms of the Black Hills merger
- Weather and demand, including new data-center load
- Capital spending plans and dividend coverage