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NWG · Analysis updated Nov 10, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Why is NatWest Group plc American Depositary Shares (NWG) stock moving?
NWG's share price is under pressure after the Q3 2026 results on Oct 30. Attributable profit was £1.5B versus £1.60B a year earlier, RoTE slipped to 21.6% from 22.3%, and impairments rose to £277M from £153M. Total income of £4.64B was up 7.1% and the NIM was 2.50%, while 9M RoTE of 20.2% was ahead of 19.5% and CET1 improved to 13.5%. Management reaffirmed its outlook. The stock fell 9.0% on Oct 30 to £15.47-equivalent ADS close of 15.47 on 6.4M shares, above the recent average of about 5.1M. It rebounded to 16.55 on Nov 4 on 8.0M shares, a move with no company-specific news in the window, then slipped back to 15.84 on Nov 10, about 8% below the Oct 28 close of 17.23. Analyst sentiment is mixed: KBW was disappointed by margin guidance on deposit competition and regulatory headwinds, BofA and Barclays trimmed price targets, and Barclays kept an Overweight rating. Fitch affirmed the rating. Ongoing buybacks (about 585-588p per share, Oct 30 to Nov 3) and the falling share count give some support. Benzinga reports NatWest now assumes a 25bp BoE hike to 4% in Q4, a potential tailwind for net interest income. Other items (Cirata contract, AI agent restrictions) are immaterial.
News behind the analysis
- NatWest Group Reports Q3 2026 Financial ResultsNatWest reported Q3 2026 attributable profit of £1.5B and a return on tangible equity (RoTE) of 21.6%.
- NatWest Q3 Attributable Profit £1.5B, EPS 19.3p; CET1 Ratio 13.5%, Up 30bps Q/QQ3 attributable profit was £1.5B with EPS of 19.3p, and the CET1 ratio rose 30bps quarter on quarter to 13.5%.
- NatWest Reaffirms Outlook; 9M RoTE 20.2% vs 19.5% Y/YNatWest reaffirmed its outlook, with nine-month RoTE at 20.2% against 19.5% a year earlier.
- Analysts Comment on NatWest Margin GuidanceKBW expressed disappointment with NatWest's margin guidance, citing deposit competition and regulatory headwinds.
- Fitch Affirms NatWest Group RatingFitch affirmed NatWest Group's credit rating, citing the bank's strong business profile.
- BofA Trims NatWest Group Price Objective Post-Q3 ResultsBank of America lowered its price objective for NatWest Group after the third-quarter results.
- Barclays Trims NatWest Price Target, Affirms Overweight RatingBarclays cut its NatWest price target but kept its Overweight rating on the stock.
- Cirata Extends Data Migrator Contract with NatWest GroupCirata extended its Data Migrator contract with NatWest for two years, with contract value increased to $370,000.
- NatWest and Major UK Banks Block AI Agents from Customer AccountsNatWest and several other major UK banks banned AI agents from accessing customer accounts to reduce security risks.
About NatWest Group plc American Depositary Shares, (each representing two (2) Ordinary Shares)
NatWest Group is one of the UK's largest banks. It runs the NatWest, Royal Bank of Scotland, Ulster Bank and Coutts brands, and it is the country's biggest lender to businesses. It used to be Royal Bank of Scotland, which the UK government rescued in 2008. The bank returned fully to private ownership in 2025, and in 2026 it bought the wealth manager Evelyn Partners to grow its wealth business. Each US ADR represents two London-listed ordinary shares.
How it makes money
Most of its income is net interest income: the gap between what it earns on mortgages, business loans and other lending (about £400bn) and what it pays on customer deposits (about £445bn). The rest comes from fees on cards, payments, markets services and wealth management. It reports three main segments: Retail Banking, Commercial & Institutional (the largest profit contributor) and Private Banking & Wealth Management. Wealth management grew after the Evelyn Partners deal added roughly £70bn of client assets. Total income in 2026 is running at roughly £17–18bn a year. Results are reported in pounds, so the ADR price also moves with the GBP/USD exchange rate.
What usually moves NWG
- Bank of England interest rate decisions and deposit margins
- UK economy, housing market and loan losses
- Capital returns via dividends and share buybacks
- UK bank regulation and taxes
- GBP/USD exchange rate