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OGS · Analysis updated Nov 10, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Why is ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS) stock moving?
ONE Gas reported Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of $0.53, beating the $0.47 estimate, but sales of $391.3M missed the $398.95M estimate. The company raised its FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $4.95-$5.01 from $4.83-$4.95, above the $4.90 consensus, and narrowed GAAP EPS guidance to $4.70-$4.76, slightly above the $4.75 estimate. A 68-cent quarterly dividend was declared. Scotiabank (Sector Outperform, $87 target) and Wells Fargo (Equal-Weight, $86 target) both raised targets on Nov 4. The stock rose from $78.25 on Oct 22 to $82.30 on Nov 10, with the strongest volume of the window (1.24M shares) on the last session. Shares rose about 1.8% on Nov 2 and 1.4% on Nov 3 on heavy volume (974K). The Nov 5 intraday high of $84.65 was followed by a retreat to $80.92 by Nov 6, so sellers emerged near that level. The main negative is the revenue miss; the positives are the EPS beat and guidance raise. Analyst targets sit only modestly above the current price.
News behind the analysis
- Scotiabank Maintains Sector Outperform on ONE Gas, Raises Price Target to $87Scotiabank kept its Sector Outperform rating and raised its price target to $87. The stock closed at $82.30 on Nov 10.
- Wells Fargo Maintains Equal-Weight on ONE Gas, Raises Price Target to $86Wells Fargo kept its Equal-Weight rating and raised its price target to $86. This implies limited upside from the Nov 10 close.
- ONE Gas Q3 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptTranscript of the Q3 2026 earnings call held Nov 3, where management discussed the quarter's results and the raised 2026 outlook.
- ONE Gas, Inc. Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Raises Financial GuidanceONE Gas reported Q3 2026 results, raised its 2026 adjusted financial outlook, and declared a quarterly dividend. The company announced a cash dividend of 68 cents per share.
- ONE Gas Narrows FY2026 GAAP EPS Guidance from $4.65-$4.77 to $4.70-$4.76 vs $4.75 EstGAAP EPS guidance for FY2026 was narrowed to $4.70-$4.76, slightly above the $4.75 consensus estimate at the midpoint.
- ONE Gas Raises FY2026 Adj EPS Guidance from $4.83-$4.95 to $4.95-$5.01 vs $4.90 EstAdjusted EPS guidance for FY2026 was raised to $4.95-$5.01, above the $4.90 consensus estimate. The prior range was $4.83-$4.95.
- ONE Gas Q3 Adj. EPS $0.53 Beats $0.47 Estimate, Sales $391.313M Miss $398.950M EstimateQ3 adjusted EPS of $0.53 beat the $0.47 estimate, while sales of $391.3M missed the $398.95M estimate.
About ONE GAS, INC.
ONE Gas is a Tulsa, Oklahoma-based utility that delivers natural gas to more than 2.3 million homes and businesses in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas through its Kansas Gas Service, Oklahoma Natural Gas and Texas Gas Service divisions. All of its business is regulated, with no unregulated side businesses, and it is the largest gas distributor in Kansas and Oklahoma and the third-largest in Texas by customer count.
How it makes money
Almost all of its revenue comes from the rates customers pay for natural gas delivery, which state regulators approve. These rates are designed to let the company recover its operating costs and earn a return on its invested capital, called its rate base (expected to average about $6.3 billion in 2026). The cost of the gas itself is mostly passed through to customers at no markup, so profit grows mainly through rate increases, customer growth and pipe-replacement spending of roughly $800 million a year that adds to the rate base. Residential customers make up the largest share of its revenue, and revenue swings with the seasons, peaking in winter heating months.
What usually moves OGS
- Rate case outcomes in Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas
- Interest rates and borrowing costs
- Customer growth in its service areas
- Winter weather and heating demand
- Capital spending and new share issuance