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ONTO · Analysis updated Nov 10, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Why is Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) stock moving?
Onto Innovation reported Q3 2026 results on Nov 9 with record revenue of $409.7M, up 88% year over year, and adjusted EPS of $2.44 above the $2.30 estimate. Management guided Q4 sales to $430M-$450M against a $413M consensus, guided adjusted EPS to $2.59-$2.79, said backlog rose above $1.3B, and expects 2026 revenue growth above 45%. The stock fell from about $220 on Oct 29 to a $155.99 close on Nov 5 ahead of results, then rose 12% on Nov 9 to $194.04 and closed at $197.51 on Nov 10 on heavy volume of about 1.98M shares. Brokers reiterated buy-type ratings but cut targets to a range of $250-$450, with most notes between $285 and $350 and the last close of $197.51 well below those levels. The main risks are the sharp recent drawdown, volatility, and the semiconductor capital-spending cycle, which the news items do not address directly.
News behind the analysis
- Onto Innovation Q3 Adj. EPS $2.44 Beats $2.30 Estimate, Sales $409.748M Beat $392.016M EstimateThird-quarter adjusted EPS and sales both beat consensus estimates, with sales of $409.7M versus $392.0M expected.
- Onto Innovation Sees Q4 Adj EPS $2.59-$2.79 vs $2.48 Est; Sees Sales $430.000M-$450.000M vs $413.253M EstFourth-quarter guidance calls for adjusted EPS of $2.59-$2.79 and sales of $430M-$450M, above the consensus estimates.
- Onto Innovation Reports Q3 Financial Results and Issues Q4 OutlookOnto reported third-quarter revenue and adjusted earnings above analyst expectations and gave a fourth-quarter outlook.
- Onto Innovation Analysts Lower Their Forecasts After Q3 ResultsAnalysts kept bullish ratings but cut price targets after the Q3 print, even though shares rose 4%.
- Jefferies Maintains Buy on Onto Innovation, Lowers Price Target to $350Jefferies kept its Buy rating and set a $350 price target after the quarter.
- RBC Cuts Price Target on Onto Innovation to $350RBC lowered its price target from $400 to $350 while keeping an Outperform rating.
- Morgan Stanley Maintains Overweight on Onto Innovation, Lowers Price Target to $325Morgan Stanley kept an Overweight rating and cut its price target to $325.
- Evercore ISI Group Maintains Outperform on Onto Innovation, Lowers Price Target to $250Evercore ISI kept an Outperform rating but lowered its price target to $250, the lowest among the recent updates.
- Oppenheimer Maintains Buy Rating and $450 Price Target for Onto InnovationOppenheimer reaffirmed its Buy rating and $450 price target, the highest target among the notes cited.
About Onto Innovation Inc.
Onto Innovation, based in Wilmington, Massachusetts, makes machines that inspect and measure chips during manufacturing, plus the software that goes with them. Its best-known product is the Dragonfly inspection line, used in advanced packaging, such as the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and 2.5D chip stacks inside AI processors. In 2026 it also bought a minority stake of about 27% in Japan's Rigaku.
How it makes money
It mostly makes money selling inspection, measurement (metrology) and lithography systems to chipmakers, memory producers and packaging firms, and it also earns from service, spare parts and software. Revenue comes from two main areas. Advanced packaging is expected to grow about 80% in 2026. Advanced nodes means leading-edge logic and memory chips, with the Atlas G6 as a key system there. Management expects 2026 revenue above about $1.3 billion. Q2 2026 revenue was a record of about $343 million, and the order backlog was over $1.1 billion.
What usually moves ONTO
- AI chip and HBM memory spending
- Chipmaker capital spending cycles
- Uptake of new Dragonfly G5 and Atlas G6 systems
- Export rules and sales to Asia
- Quarterly guidance and backlog