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THG · Analysis updated Nov 10, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Why is The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (THG) stock moving?
Q3 2026 operating EPS of $5.15 beat the $4.59 estimate and ROE stayed strong at 18.7% operating, but revenue of $1.611B missed the $1.746B estimate. Catastrophe losses of $109.7M lifted the combined ratio to 92.3% (85.5% ex-cats), and book value per share fell 5.4% from June 30 to $99.69, though it rose 2.7% excluding unrealized bond depreciation. Pricing held up, with renewal increases of 8.7% in Personal Lines, 7.4% in Core Commercial and 4.3% in Specialty, and net investment income rose 12.7% to $131.9M. After the results, Citizens (Market Outperform, target $250), RBC (Sector Perform, target $245) and Morgan Stanley (Equal-Weight, target $235) all raised targets, but the stock at $250.21 already sits at or above two of those three levels, which limits the implied upside. Shares moved from about $228-239 in late October to a $256.74 intraday high on Nov 5, fell to $242.27 on Nov 6, and rebounded to $250.21 on Nov 10 on volume of about 253K, below the 14-session average of roughly 332K. Frasers Group's 10.79% stake and a Balderton Capital holding change add shareholder-level news with no clear directional read.
News behind the analysis
- The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial ResultsReported Q3 2026 operating EPS of $5.15 and net EPS of $4.86, with a combined ratio of 92.3% and catastrophe losses of $109.7M. Book value per share fell 5.4% from June 30 to $99.69.
- Hanover Insurance Q3 Adj. EPS $5.15 Beats $4.59 Estimate, Sales $1.611B Miss $1.746B EstimateOperating EPS beat the $4.59 consensus, while revenue of $1.611B fell short of the $1.746B estimate.
- Citizens Maintains Market Outperform Rating on The Hanover Insurance GroupCitizens kept its Market Outperform rating and raised its price target from $240 to $250.
- RBC Raises Price Target on The Hanover Insurance Group to $245RBC Capital Markets raised its price target from $235 to $245 and kept a Sector Perform rating.
- Morgan Stanley Maintains Equal-Weight Rating and Raises Price Target on The Hanover Insurance GroupMorgan Stanley kept its Equal-Weight rating and raised its price target from $230 to $235.
- The Hanover Insurance Gr Q3 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptTranscript of the Q3 2026 earnings call, where management discussed results and the outlook for renewal pricing and growth.
- Frasers Group PLC Discloses 10.79% Stake in THG PLCRegulatory filings show Frasers Group PLC held a 10.79% stake in THG PLC as of October 28, 2026.
- THG PLC Receives Notification of Major HoldingsA TR-1 filing reports a change in major shareholdings by Balderton Capital IV, L.P. in THG PLC.
About The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.
The Hanover Insurance Group is a property and casualty insurer based in Worcester, Massachusetts. It sells car, home, small-business and specialty insurance only through independent agents. CEO Jack Roche plans to retire at the end of 2026, and Dick Lavey is expected to take over.
How it makes money
Most of its revenue comes from insurance premiums: about $1.6 billion out of roughly $1.74 billion in Q3 2026. Those premiums come from three segments: Core Commercial (small and mid-sized businesses), Specialty (niche commercial lines) and Personal Lines (auto and homeowners insurance). It also earns investment income on the bond-heavy portfolio it builds from premiums collected before claims are paid. Profit depends on underwriting discipline. Its combined ratio, which compares claims and expenses to premiums, was about 92% in 2026, and anything under 100% means an underwriting profit.
What usually moves THG
- Catastrophe and severe-weather losses
- Pricing and rate increases in personal and commercial lines
- Combined ratio and claims cost inflation
- Interest rates and investment income
- CEO succession and capital returns (dividends, buybacks)