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TKR · Analysis updated Nov 10, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Why is The Timken Company (TKR) stock moving?
Timken beat Q3 2026 expectations on Nov 4, with adjusted EPS of $1.65 versus a $1.48 estimate and sales of $1.211B, and raised adjusted FY2026 EPS guidance to $6.35-$6.50 from $6.05-$6.35. Sales guidance was only affirmed at $4.833B, slightly below the $4.849B estimate, and GAAP EPS guidance of $4.05-$4.20 sits below the $4.36 consensus, which may explain why the stock sold off despite the beat. Shares fell 7.8% that day on 2.54M volume, about three times the typical daily level of roughly 0.8M, closing at $106.63, then slid to a $98.77 low on Nov 5. The stock has since recovered to $109.19 on Nov 10, but that is still about 5.6% below the Nov 3 close of $115.66, and volume faded to 557K on Nov 10. Analysts remain constructive: Citigroup keeps a Buy with a $125 target, trimmed from $140, and Evercore ISI keeps Outperform with a $145 target, both above the current price, though the target cuts show estimates were trimmed after the selloff.
News behind the analysis
- Evercore ISI Group Maintains Outperform on Timken, Lowers Price Target to $145Evercore ISI kept its Outperform rating on Timken but cut its price target to $145.
- Citigroup Maintains Buy Rating on The Timken Company, Lowers Price TargetCitigroup kept its Buy rating on Timken and lowered its price target to $125 from $140.
- Citigroup Maintains Buy on Timken, Lowers Price Target to $125Benzinga reports Citigroup's Buy rating on Timken, with the price target cut to $125.
- Timken Q3 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptTimken held its Q3 2026 earnings call on Nov 4 after reporting results that day; the transcript is now available.
- The Timken Company Reports Third-Quarter 2026 Financial ResultsQ3 2026 sales rose 4.7% year over year and adjusted EPS reached $1.65, leading to an upward revision of full-year 2026 earnings guidance.
- Timken Raises FY2026 GAAP EPS Guidance from $3.75-$4.05 to $4.05-$4.20 vs $4.36 EstFY2026 GAAP EPS guidance was raised to $4.05-$4.20, still below the $4.36 consensus estimate.
- Timken Raises FY2026 Adj EPS Guidance from $6.05-$6.35 to $6.35-$6.50 vs $6.24 Est; Affirms FY2026 Sales Guidance of $4.833B vs $4.849B EstAdjusted FY2026 EPS guidance rose to $6.35-$6.50, above the $6.24 estimate, while sales guidance of $4.833B was affirmed just below the $4.849B estimate.
- Timken Q3 Adj. EPS $1.65 Beats $1.48 Estimate, Sales $1.211B Beat $1.210B EstimateQ3 adjusted EPS of $1.65 beat the $1.48 estimate, and sales of $1.211B narrowly beat the $1.210B estimate.
About The Timken Company
The Timken Company is an Ohio-based maker of engineered bearings and industrial motion products. It has more than 125 years of history, operates in about 45 countries and had roughly $4.6 billion in sales in 2025. It is best known for its tapered roller bearings.
How it makes money
Timken reports two segments. Engineered Bearings is the larger one, at about two-thirds of sales. It sells roller and ball bearings to equipment makers and replacement-parts channels in rail, wind and other renewable energy, aerospace and defense, off-highway, heavy industry and automotive. Industrial Motion makes up the rest, about a third. It sells gear drives, couplings, linear motion and automation parts, lubrication systems and seals, and also offers repair and maintenance services. Timken is selling off its belts business to raise this segment's margins. Replacement parts and services tend to be steadier than sales of original equipment.
What usually moves TKR
- Global industrial production and factory activity
- Wind, rail and aerospace/defense demand
- Pricing versus steel and other input costs
- Tariffs and foreign currency moves
- Acquisitions and portfolio reshaping