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ALK · Analysis updated Nov 10, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Why is Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) stock moving?
ALK closed at $41.54 on Nov 10, up about 17% from $35.38 on Oct 22, and above TD Cowen's cut $41 target. The rally came on heavy volume: Nov 2 (+7.2% on 4.5M shares), Nov 4 (+4.2% to $40.00 on 4.3M), and Nov 9 (+8.0% to $41.70 on 3.6M). Volume fell to 2.4M on Nov 10, so momentum is cooling. The Q3 release (Oct 20) showed adjusted EPS of $0.36 within guidance, revenue up 14% to $4.3B, unit revenue up 11.7% against unit cost ex-fuel up 4.4%, but a GAAP loss of -$1.32 per share and fuel at $3.94 per gallon versus the $3.75 expected, with a $1.8B fuel headwind for the year. All three recent analyst updates kept Buy ratings but cut targets (DA Davidson $60 from $66, UBS $48 from $51, TD Cowen $41 from $44), and the Oct 31 plan to cut about 200 non-contract roles reflects fuel cost pressure. The Sep 29 Alaska Accelerate update says about two-thirds of the $1B incremental profit target is captured, with full delivery expected by 2027. The Alkemy Capital item in the feed concerns a different company and was excluded. Net: strong recent price action and Buy ratings, offset by cost pressure, lower targets and a price now above two of the three target levels.
News behind the analysis
- DA Davidson Adjusts Price Target on Alaska Air GroupDA Davidson cut its price target to $60 from $66 and kept a Buy/Add rating on the stock.
- UBS Maintains Buy on Alaska Air Group, Lowers Price Target to $48UBS kept its Buy rating and lowered its price target to $48 from $51.
- UBS Adjusts Price Target on Alaska Air Group to $48UBS lowered its Alaska Air price target from $51 to $48 and maintained its Buy rating.
- Alaska Air Group Announces Workforce Reductions Amid Rising Fuel CostsThe company plans to eliminate about 200 non-contract positions as rising fuel costs add financial pressure.
- TD Cowen Adjusts Price Target for Alaska Air GroupTD Cowen kept its Buy rating and lowered its price target to $41 from $44.
- TD Cowen Maintains Buy on Alaska Air Group, Lowers Price Target to $41TD Cowen maintained its Buy rating and cut its price target to $41 from $44.
- Alaska Air Group reports third quarter 2026 resultsQ3 adjusted EPS was $0.36, within the $0.00 to $1.00 guidance, with revenue up 14% to $4.3B and a GAAP net loss of $147M, while the company cited a $1.8B fuel headwind this year.
About Alaska Air Group, Inc.
Alaska Air Group is the Seattle-based parent of Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines and regional carrier Horizon Air, with hubs that include Seattle, Honolulu, Portland, Anchorage and several California cities. It's a member of the oneworld alliance. After buying Hawaiian, it has been merging the two airlines and adding long-haul international flights from Seattle, including service to Europe and Asia that began in 2026.
How it makes money
Most of its money comes from ticket sales. In Q2 2026, passenger revenue was about $3.6 billion of roughly $4.1 billion in total, or close to 90%. It also earns money from its Atmos Rewards loyalty program, mainly by selling miles to its co-brand credit card partner Bank of America (about 6%), and from cargo and other services (about 4%). The company says about 54% of revenue now comes from outside the main cabin, which includes premium seats, loyalty and cargo. Fuel is one of its biggest costs, and higher fuel prices led to losses in 2026.
What usually moves ALK
- Jet fuel prices
- Air travel demand and ticket prices, especially premium seats
- Progress merging Alaska and Hawaiian
- Labor costs and union contracts
- Debt levels and the wider economy