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CF · Analysis updated Nov 10, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Why is CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) stock moving?
CF reported a Q3 2026 beat on Nov 4: EPS of $2.87 versus a $2.83 consensus, and sales of $1.86B versus $1.785B, although FactSet's $2.95 EPS estimate was higher. Management pointed to 97% year-to-date ammonia utilization, a 9.5 million ton full-year 2026 production outlook that includes the Yazoo City outage, and a nitrogen pricing trajectory that stays positive through at least H1 2027 because Middle East supply will take time to return. Fall ammonia volumes are expected to be among the highest in ten years. The stock fell to a 111.68 close on Nov 4 on 4.7M shares, roughly double its recent average volume, then recovered to 118.57 on Nov 5 and 119.28 on Nov 9. On Nov 10 it closed at 122.36, up about 2.6%, after an intraday high of 123.8. RBC lifted its price target to $125 on Nov 9 while keeping Sector Perform, so the stock is trading close to that target. Risks include the Blue Point capital program, the Yazoo City outage, and a possible normalization of nitrogen prices if Middle East supply returns faster than expected.
News behind the analysis
- CF Industries Holdings Q3 EPS $2.87 Beats $2.83 Estimate, Sales $1.860B Beat $1.785B EstimateCF reported Q3 2026 earnings per share of $2.87 and net sales of $1.86 billion, both ahead of consensus estimates. Net earnings were $436 million and adjusted EBITDA was $833 million.
- CF Industries Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial ResultsCF reported Q3 EPS of $2.87 against a FactSet estimate of $2.95, a slight miss on that measure. The company also repurchased 3.0 million shares for $367 million in the quarter.
- CF Industries Says Middle East Nitrogen Supply To Take Time To Flow Again Even If There Is Some Sort Of Resumption; Sees Robust Demand For UAN And Urea, Expects Positive Nitrogen Pricing Trajectory Through At Least H1 2027Management said Middle East nitrogen supply would take time to return even if disruptions ease. It sees robust UAN and urea demand and a positive nitrogen pricing trajectory through at least H1 2027.
- CF Industries Expects Fall Ammonia Volumes Among Highest In 10 Years; Expects Global Nitrogen Supply Demand Balance To Remain Constructive Into 2027CF expects fall ammonia volumes to be among the highest in ten years. It also sees the global nitrogen supply-demand balance staying constructive into 2027.
- CF Industries Holdings Q3 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptThe transcript of CF's third-quarter 2026 earnings call is now available. It covers the company's operating results and outlook.
- RBC Capital Maintains Sector Perform on CF Industries Holdings, Raises Price Target to $125RBC kept its Sector Perform rating on CF and raised its price target from $115 to $125. The move follows the Q3 results.
- RBC Capital Markets Raises Price Target on CF Industries HoldingsRBC Capital Markets raised its price target on CF Industries Holdings from $115 to $125 while keeping a Sector Perform rating. The change is a modest upgrade to valuation rather than a rating change.
- CNBC Halftime Report Final Trades: ConocoPhillips, Chubb, Morgan Stanley, CF IndustriesCF was among the stocks named as a CNBC Halftime Report final trade, with traders citing its earnings and outlook. The mention drew attention to the stock.
- Morgan Stanley, Chubb and CF Industries: CNBC's 'Final Trades'CNBC traders picked CF Industries as a final trade, citing strong earnings and outlooks. The pick was published again on Nov 6.
About CF Industries Holding, Inc.
CF Industries, based in Northbrook, Illinois, makes ammonia and nitrogen fertilizers and runs the world's largest ammonia production network, with plants in the US, Canada and the UK. Its edge comes from cheap North American natural gas and a large storage and distribution network. It is also building Blue Point, a big low-carbon ammonia project in Louisiana, with partners JERA and Mitsui.
How it makes money
It turns natural gas into ammonia and sells it, along with products made from it, mostly to farmers, fertilizer dealers and industrial customers. The main products are urea, UAN (a liquid nitrogen fertilizer), ammonia itself, ammonium nitrate and diesel exhaust fluid. Fertilizer for crops like corn brings in most of the money. Profits depend on the gap between nitrogen prices and natural gas costs. Partner CHS owns a minority stake in one of its operating units and receives regular cash payouts from it.
What usually moves CF
- Global nitrogen fertilizer prices
- US natural gas costs versus European and Asian gas prices
- US corn planting and farm economics
- Plant outages (e.g., Yazoo City) and global supply disruptions
- Low-carbon ammonia demand and Blue Point project progress