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MOS · Analysis updated Nov 10, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Why is The Mosaic Company (MOS) stock moving?
MOS has rallied about 33% from $17.27 on Oct 22 to $22.99 on Nov 10. The move began with the Q3 2026 report on Nov 3-4: sales of $3.101B beat the $3.060B estimate, but adjusted EPS of $(0.19) missed the $(0.02) estimate. Year over year, sales fell from $3.452B, adjusted EBITDA dropped from $806M to $324M, and adjusted EPS dropped from $1.04. Management guided Q4 sales volumes to 2.3M-2.6M tonnes, settled its Q4 sulfur contract at $615 per long ton, and said a strategic review of its asset portfolio continues. The stock gapped up 17.4% on Nov 4 on about 22.2M shares, roughly 2.6 times the prior average, and volume has since eased to 9.5M. Closes have risen for three sessions, but the Nov 9 intraday high of $23.73 reversed, and RBC's cut target of $23 sits at the current price, so much of the post-earnings re-rating may already be priced in. Fundamentals remain weak, with GAAP net losses in recent quarters. The strategic review is the main unresolved catalyst, and no outcome has been announced.
News behind the analysis
- RBC Capital Maintains Sector Perform on Mosaic, Lowers Price Target to $23RBC kept its Sector Perform rating but cut its price target to $23, close to the current share price of $22.99.
- Mosaic Q3 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptManagement discussed third-quarter 2026 results on the Nov 4 earnings call, the day the shares gapped up about 17%.
- The Mosaic Company Announces Third Quarter 2026 Financial ResultsMosaic released its Q3 2026 results and scheduled a conference call to discuss the performance.
- Mosaic Says Q4 Sales Volumes Are Expected To Be In The Range Of 2.3M To 2.6M Tonnes; Settled Q4 Sulfur Contract At $615 Per Long Ton, Which Is Expected To Positively Contribute To Fourth Quarter Free Cash Flow; Continues To Advance A Strategic Review Of Its Asset PortfolioMosaic guided Q4 sales volumes to 2.3M-2.6M tonnes, settled its Q4 sulfur contract at $615 per long ton, and said it is continuing a strategic review of its asset portfolio.
- Mosaic Q3 Adj. EPS $(0.19) Misses $(0.02) Estimate, Sales $3.101B Beat $3.060B EstimateAdjusted EPS of $(0.19) missed the $(0.02) estimate, while sales of $3.101B beat the $3.060B estimate.
- Unifor Advocates for Stricter Workplace Safety Laws Following Fatal Incident at Mosaic MineUnion Unifor is lobbying Saskatchewan for tougher workplace safety rules and independent investigations, citing a past fatality at a Mosaic potash mine.
About The Mosaic Company
The Mosaic Company is a Tampa-based maker of crop nutrients and one of the world's largest producers of phosphate and potash fertilizers, with mines in Florida, Saskatchewan and Brazil. It also runs a large fertilizer distribution business in Brazil (Mosaic Fertilizantes) and a small but growing biologicals unit (Mosaic Biosciences).
How it makes money
It mines phosphate rock and potash and sells finished fertilizers to farmers, distributors and wholesalers around the world. Sales come from three main segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes, which distributes and sells fertilizer in Brazil. Revenue was about $3.1 billion in Q3 2026, and the company posted net losses in 2026 as raw-material costs like sulfur rose and some phosphate production was cut back. It pays a quarterly dividend of about $0.22 per share.
What usually moves MOS
- Phosphate (DAP) and potash prices
- Sulfur and ammonia input costs
- Crop prices and farmer demand, especially in Brazil and the US
- Production levels and mine curtailments
- Global fertilizer trade, tariffs and sanctions