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CLF · Analysis updated Nov 10, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Why is Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) stock moving?
CLF closed at $14.14 on Nov 3 and fell to $11.27 by Nov 5, a drop of about 20%, on heavy volume of 28.8M and 23.8M shares. The provided news does not state a cause for that decline. On Nov 6 the company finalized four-year labor contracts covering about 12,000 employees, and a separate tentative deal covers about 3,000 workers, which removes a labor overhang. The stock has since recovered to $12.86 on Nov 10, though it remains below the $14.14 level of early November. Regulatory risk is still open: Canada's industry minister asked the Competition Commissioner to examine enforcement against the company, and the Stelco recall dispute with Ottawa and the union is unresolved. Fundamentals are supportive. The Q3 report showed adjusted EBITDA of $612M, above the $575M guidance, and management guided 2027 adjusted EBITDA above $4B, with a major Q4 debt reduction and a leverage target under 2.5x by mid-2027. Citigroup's Neutral rating with a $14 target sits about 9% above the latest close. These forward figures are company expectations, so the outlook depends on steel pricing and imports.
News behind the analysis
- Cleveland-Cliffs Reaches New 4-Year Labor Agreements With United Steelworkers Covering 12,000 EmployeesCleveland-Cliffs finalized new four-year labor contracts with the United Steelworkers covering about 12,000 North American employees, reducing near-term labor risk.
- Cleveland-Cliffs and United Steelworkers Reach Tentative Bargaining AgreementA tentative labor agreement covering about 3,000 employees at Cleveland-Cliffs' ore mines and processing sites in Minnesota and Michigan was reached with the union.
- Canada Industry Minister Says She Has Asked Competition Commissioner To Probe Whether Enforcement Action Can Be Taken Against Cleveland-Cliffs - Reuters NewsCanada's industry minister asked the Competition Commissioner to examine whether enforcement action can be taken against Cleveland-Cliffs, adding regulatory risk.
- CNBC's 'Final Trades' Picks Cleveland-CliffsCNBC traders selected Cleveland-Cliffs as a trade idea in the Nov 3 segment, one of several stocks highlighted that day.
- Citigroup Maintains Neutral on Cleveland-Cliffs, Raises Price Target to $14Citigroup kept a Neutral rating and raised its price target to $14, about 9% above the Nov 10 close of $12.86.
- Canadian Government Demands Re-engagement Plan for Stelco WorkersCanada's industry minister conditioned a meeting with CEO Lourenco Goncalves on a clear plan to recall laid-off Stelco workers.
- Cleveland-Cliffs CEO Engages in Public Dispute with United Steelworkers Over Stelco OperationsCEO Lourenco Goncalves accused the United Steelworkers of colluding with the Canadian government over Stelco, drawing a sharp union rebuttal.
- Cleveland-Cliffs Reports Third-Quarter 2026 ResultsQ3 revenue was $5.6B and adjusted EBITDA $612M, above $575M guidance. Management expects 2027 adjusted EBITDA above $4B and a major Q4 debt reduction.
About Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.
Cleveland-Cliffs is a large North American steelmaker based in Cleveland, Ohio, with about 25,000 employees in the US and Canada. It is unusually vertically integrated: it mines its own iron ore and makes pellets, then produces and finishes the steel, with a particular focus on flat sheet steel for the auto industry.
How it makes money
Nearly all of its revenue comes from selling steel: mostly flat-rolled sheet (hot-rolled, cold-rolled, coated), plus plate, stainless and electrical steel, and tubular products. Automakers are its biggest single customer group, and the rest goes to service centers, distributors, converters and infrastructure/manufacturing buyers. Part of its sales are set under annual contracts with fixed prices and part are sold at market (spot) prices. Revenue was roughly $5–5.6 billion a quarter in 2026 (approximate), on expected shipments of about 16.5–17 million net tons for the year. It also earns a smaller amount from selling iron ore pellets, coke and scrap.
What usually moves CLF
- US hot-rolled steel prices
- North American auto production
- Annual fixed-price contract renewals
- Steel tariffs and trade policy
- Debt levels and input costs like coal, scrap and energy