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MT · Analysis updated Nov 10, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Why is ArcelorMittal (MT) stock moving?
Q3 2026 results were mixed. Adjusted EPS of $1.15 beat the $0.72 estimate and EBITDA rose 34% to $2.02B, with EBITDA per tonne up to $155 from $111. Against that, revenue missed consensus, the reported net loss of $391M reflects an $852M impairment and $293M of exceptional charges tied to idling Kryvyi Rih, net debt rose to $10.3B from $9.5B, and 2026 guidance was trimmed for strategic-project EBITDA (to about $0.5B from $0.7B) and Liberia iron ore shipments (about 16Mt from 18Mt). Supportive points include an expected Q4 unwind of the $2.5B working capital build, unchanged positive 2026 free cash flow outlook, Q4 European flat shipments guided up double digits, Gijón and Sestao EAFs on track for Q4 commissioning, and $1.1B returned to shareholders in nine months. The price action confirms a rebound: MT fell to a $60.42 close on Nov 5 on 2.84M shares, the highest volume in the 30-day window, then rallied to $65.68 on Nov 10 (up about 7.7% from $60.98 on Nov 6) on 2.38M shares. The Nov 10 close sits at the top of the 30-day range, near the $65.36 VWAP. The Nov 9 disclosure that Brad Davey will retire on Jan 1, 2027 is noted, but the filing does not state his role, so its impact cannot be assessed.
News behind the analysis
- ArcelorMittal Q3 Adj. EPS $1.15 Beats $0.72 Estimate, Sales $16.466B Miss $17.056B EstimateAdjusted EPS beat consensus by a wide margin, while revenue came in about 3.5% below estimates.
- ArcelorMittal Q3 EBITDA $2.02B, Up 34% YoY; EBITDA/Tonne $155 vs $111 YoYEBITDA rose 34% year on year, and EBITDA per tonne improved to $155 from $111.
- ArcelorMittal Q3 Reported Net Loss $391M Includes $852M Impairment & $293M Exceptional Charges On Idling Of Kryvyi Rih, UkraineThe reported net loss reflects an $852M impairment and $293M of exceptional charges tied to idling the Kryvyi Rih site in Ukraine.
- ArcelorMittal Cuts 2026 EBITDA Contribution From Strategic Projects To ~$0.5B From $0.7B; Sees Liberia FY Iron Ore Shipments ~16Mt vs ~18Mt Previously GuidedGuidance was trimmed: strategic-project EBITDA contribution for 2026 falls to about $0.5B, and Liberia iron ore shipments are now seen near 16Mt.
- ArcelorMittal Net Debt $10.3B At Sept 30 vs $9.5B At June 30Net debt rose by $0.8B over the quarter.
- ArcelorMittal Expects $2.5B 9M Working Capital Investment To Largely Unwind In Q4; Positive FCF Outlook For 2026 UnchangedManagement expects most of the $2.5B nine-month working capital build to reverse in Q4 and kept its positive 2026 free cash flow outlook.
- ArcelorMittal Returned $1.1B To Shareholders In 9M Via Dividends & Buybacks; New Tranche Of Up To 10M Shares, 3.4M Repurchased As Of Sept 30Nine-month shareholder returns reached $1.1B, and a new buyback tranche of up to 10M shares is under way, with 3.4M repurchased by Sept 30.
- ArcelorMittal Says Gijón & Sestao EAFs On Track For Commissioning In Q4; Dunkirk 2Mt EAF Moved Into ExecutionElectric arc furnace projects at Gijón and Sestao remain on schedule for Q4 commissioning, and a 2Mt Dunkirk EAF has moved into execution.
- ArcelorMittal announces Brad Davey to retire on 1st January 2027The company announced that Brad Davey will retire on January 1, 2027, as disclosed in a Form 6-K filed on November 10.
About ArcelorMittal
ArcelorMittal is a Luxembourg-based steelmaker and one of the world's largest, producing about 55 million tonnes of crude steel a year (roughly 41 Mt in the first nine months of 2026) across Europe, the Americas, India (through a joint venture) and other regions. It stands out because it is both a steelmaker and an iron ore miner, with mines in Canada and Liberia. Its shares trade in New York as well as in Europe.
How it makes money
Most of its revenue, roughly $65 billion a year (about $16.5 billion in Q3 2026), comes from selling flat and long steel products to carmakers, construction, appliance and industrial customers. Europe is its largest business, followed by North America, Brazil and India. Selling iron ore from its own mines in Canada and Liberia adds a smaller share. It also earns income from joint ventures such as AM/NS India.
What usually moves MT
- Steel prices and spreads over raw material costs
- Iron ore and coking coal prices
- European demand, trade protection and carbon policy
- Auto and construction activity
- US tariffs and Chinese steel exports