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FICO · Analysis updated Nov 10, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Why is Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) stock moving?
FICO beat fiscal Q4 2026 estimates on November 4, with adjusted EPS of $11.10 versus $10.71 expected and sales of $657.05M versus $651.68M, but the company issued no FY27 outlook. It cited rising interest rates, affordability pressure and an ongoing pricing transition. The stock fell from $724.38 on Nov 3 to $701.03 on Nov 4 and then hit an intraday low of $653.40 on Nov 5, when RBC, JP Morgan, Barclays, Wells Fargo, Needham and Jefferies cut price targets to a range of $650 to $925. The Nov 5 session recovered to $707.40, and the stock closed at $730.66 on Nov 10 on falling volume, which dropped from 1.33M shares to 370K. The Oct 26 drop from $823.27 to $708.07 on 2.46M shares is not explained by the news provided. Recent support sits near $690 to $705, where closes held from Oct 27 to Nov 6, and resistance sits near $724 to $731 and then $760. Positives include the earnings beat, the 15% workforce reduction that management ties to a simpler structure and AI-driven development, and new lender adoption through the Preferred Program and Auto Score 10. Negatives are the lack of guidance, the analyst target cuts and the macro pressures management named. The price remains below most targets set on Nov 5, leaving the outlook balanced.
News behind the analysis
- Fair Isaac Corporation Reports Fiscal Q4 2026 Financial ResultsFiscal Q4 adjusted earnings and revenue exceeded analyst expectations, with the quarter ended September 30, 2026. The company also reported a workforce reduction of about 15% of positions, with about $27.0M of pre-tax charges in Q4.
- Fair Isaac Q4 Adj. EPS $11.10 Beats $10.71 Estimate, Sales $657.049M Beat $651.679M EstimateAdjusted EPS of $11.10 topped the $10.71 consensus, and sales of $657.05M beat the $651.68M estimate.
- FICO Not Issuing FY27 Outlook Due To Rising Interest Rates, Ongoing Affordability Challenges, Pricing TransitionFICO will not issue a FY27 outlook, citing rising interest rates, affordability pressure on borrowers and an ongoing pricing transition. The absence of guidance removes a key visibility point for investors.
- Fair Isaac Q4 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptTranscript of the fourth-quarter 2026 earnings call, published after the results were released on November 4.
- RBC Capital Downgrades Fair Isaac to Sector Perform, Lowers Price Target to $770RBC downgraded Fair Isaac to Sector Perform from Outperform and cut its price target to $770 from $1,045.
- Wells Fargo Maintains Equal-Weight on Fair Isaac, Lowers Price Target to $650Wells Fargo kept its Equal-Weight rating and lowered its price target to $650, the lowest target among the updates.
- JP Morgan Maintains Neutral on Fair Isaac, Lowers Price Target to $800JP Morgan kept its Neutral rating and reduced its price target to $800.
- Barclays Maintains Overweight on Fair Isaac, Lowers Price Target to $800Barclays kept its Overweight rating but lowered its price target to $800.
- Needham Maintains Buy on Fair Isaac, Lowers Price Target to $925Needham kept its Buy rating and lowered its price target to $925.
- Fair Isaac Corporation Expands Lending Footprint with New Partnerships and Product AdoptionFairway Home Mortgage, Movement Mortgage and Rate joined FICO's Preferred Program, and Arvest Bank adopted FICO Auto Score 10.
About Fair Isaac Corporation
Fair Isaac Corporation, based in Bozeman, Montana, makes the FICO Score, the credit score most US lenders use to decide on mortgages, credit cards and auto loans. It also sells analytics and decision-making software, including its cloud-based FICO Platform, that banks use for credit approvals, fraud detection and collections.
How it makes money
Scores brought in about two-thirds of revenue in fiscal 2026, roughly $1.65 billion of about $2.5 billion total. FICO earns a fee each time a lender pulls a FICO Score, mostly through the three credit bureaus but increasingly through direct licensing. Mortgage origination scores are a big part of recent growth, driven largely by higher prices per score. It also sells scores to consumers, for example through myFICO. Software brought in the remaining third, about $0.9 billion, mostly from recurring subscription and SaaS fees. The newer FICO Platform is growing fast, while older non-platform products are shrinking.
What usually moves FICO
- Pricing of mortgage credit scores
- Mortgage and consumer lending volumes
- Regulatory scrutiny and competition from VantageScore
- Adoption of FICO Platform software
- Pricing disputes with credit bureaus and lenders