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KRMN · Analysis updated Nov 10, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Why is Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN) stock moving?
Karman reported record Q3 FY2026 results on Nov 5: revenue of $202M (+66% total, +25% organic), adjusted EPS of $0.19 versus a $0.15 estimate, and adjusted EBITDA of $61M. Sales beat the $194.7M estimate, and FY26 revenue guidance was raised to $755M-$760M against a $742.2M consensus, with adjusted EBITDA guidance of $225M-$227M. Backlog reached a record $1.7B, up 108% since fiscal year-end 2025, helped by nearly $465M of quarterly bookings including a seven-year Lockheed Martin THAAD contract. Price action confirms the reaction: the stock closed at 32.09 on Nov 5, then closed at 45.61 on Nov 6 on 10.2M shares, about four times the typical 2-3M daily volume. It reached 47.54 intraday on Nov 9 and eased to 43.91 on Nov 10 as volume fell to 3.0M. Press reports cite an 11.8% gain on Nov 6, while the OHLCV data implies a much larger close-to-close move. Analysts mostly kept positive ratings: Barclays Overweight with an $80 target (Nov 9), Piper Sandler Overweight at $60, KeyBanc Overweight at $65, RBC Outperform at $60 and Needham Buy at $50. Barclays and Piper raised targets, while RBC, KeyBanc and Needham trimmed theirs. The average target across these five is about $63, above the last close. Risks include the Nov 4 drop to 34.17 on heavy volume, which came before results and is not explained by the provided news, the lower targets from three brokers, two long-term agreements still under negotiation, and high day-to-day volatility.
News behind the analysis
- Barclays Maintains Overweight on Karman Holdings, Raises Price Target to $80Barclays kept its Overweight rating and raised its price target to $80 on Karman Holdings.
- These Analysts Revise Their Forecasts On Karman After Upbeat Q3 ResultsKarman beat Q3 estimates with 66% revenue growth and raised FY26 sales guidance to $755M-$760M, and analysts revised their forecasts after the results.
- Needham Maintains Buy on Karman Holdings, Lowers Price Target to $50Needham kept its Buy rating on Karman Holdings but lowered its price target to $50.
- Piper Sandler Reiterates Overweight on Karman Holdings, Raises Price Target to $60Piper Sandler reiterated its Overweight rating and raised its price target to $60 on Karman Holdings.
- Karman Holdings Raises FY2026 Sales Guidance from $730.000M-$745.000M to $755.000M-$760.000M vs $742.204M EstKarman raised its FY2026 sales guidance to $755M-$760M, above the $742.2M consensus estimate.
- Karman Holdings Q3 Adj. EPS $0.19 Beats $0.15 Estimate, Sales $201.623M Beat $194.697M EstimateKarman beat third-quarter estimates, with adjusted EPS of $0.19 against $0.15 expected and sales of $201.6M against $194.7M expected.
- Keybanc Maintains Overweight on Karman Holdings, Lowers Price Target to $65KeyBanc kept its Overweight rating on Karman Holdings but lowered its price target to $65.
- RBC Capital Maintains Outperform on Karman Holdings, Lowers Price Target to $60RBC Capital kept its Outperform rating on Karman Holdings but lowered its price target to $60.
- Karman Space & Defense Reports Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 Financial ResultsKarman reported record Q3 FY2026 revenue of $202M, record adjusted EBITDA of $61M and a record backlog of $1.7B.
- Karman Space & Defense Updates Fiscal 2026 Revenue OutlookKarman updated its fiscal 2026 revenue forecast to $755M-$760M, above analyst expectations.
About Karman Holdings Inc.
Karman Holdings, which operates as Karman Space & Defense, is based in Huntington Beach, California. It designs, tests and builds mission-critical parts and subsystems for missiles, hypersonic weapons and space launch vehicles. It went public on the NYSE in February 2025 and sells mostly to big defense prime contractors, not straight to governments.
How it makes money
It sells engineered hardware under contracts with defense primes and space companies. The three main product lines are payload protection and deployment systems (for example, nose cones and fairings), aerodynamic interstage systems that join rocket or missile stages, and propulsion systems. The end markets are hypersonics and strategic missile defense, tactical missiles and integrated defense systems, and space and launch. Revenue was about $470 million in 2025, up roughly 37% from 2024, and was about $590 million over the trailing twelve months as of late 2026.
What usually moves KRMN
- US defense budgets and missile/hypersonics program funding
- Missile production rates at prime contractors
- Space launch activity
- Earnings results and growth guidance versus high valuation expectations
- Debt levels and acquisitions/capacity expansion