moneyheap
MDA · Analysis updated Nov 10, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Why is MDA Space Ltd. (MDA) stock moving?
MDA closed at $30.88 on Nov 10, up about 18% from the $26.20 low on Nov 2, after a +8.2% move on Nov 9 (28.40 to 30.74) with volume of 1.5M shares. Q3 revenue rose about 22% to C$498.1M and nine-month revenue reached C$1,460.8M, up roughly 29%. Operating income grew only modestly (C$35.1M vs C$33.0M), so operating margin narrowed to about 7%, and diluted EPS fell to $0.19 from $0.21 as diluted shares rose to 163.1M from 130.1M. Cash jumped to C$2,153.8M from C$152.0M at year-end 2025; the filing excerpt does not explain the source. Full-year revenue guidance was raised. The Thales IRIS² authorization to proceed (over $100M, 66 satellites) is a meaningful backlog item, but the definitive contract is still pending. Analysts remain positive: JP Morgan keeps Overweight with a $44 target, Scotiabank keeps Sector Outperform at $55, and Deutsche Bank keeps Buy at $38. Price targets were trimmed by $1 to $6 across the three firms, which caps some upside expectations even though targets remain above the current price.
News behind the analysis
- JP Morgan Maintains Overweight on MDA Space, Lowers Price Target to $44JP Morgan kept its Overweight rating on MDA Space and cut its price target to $44. The stock closed at $30.88 on Nov 10.
- MDA Space Completes Initial On-Orbit Functional Tests for Globalstar 2-R MissionThe first eight replenishment satellites for Globalstar's constellation passed initial functional tests following their August launch.
- Scotiabank Maintains Sector Outperform Rating on MDA SpaceScotiabank reaffirmed its Sector Outperform rating and trimmed its price target to $55 from $56.
- Deutsche Bank Lowers MDA Space Price Target to $38Deutsche Bank cut its price target to $38 from $41 and kept its buy rating.
- MDA Space Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial ResultsQ3 revenue rose to $498.1M from $409.8M a year earlier and full-year 2026 revenue guidance was raised. Diluted EPS was $0.19 versus $0.21, reflecting a larger share count.
- MDA Space Receives Authorization to Proceed from Thales Alenia Space for IRIS² Satellite ProgramMDA received an authorization to proceed worth over $100M to develop digital antenna subsystems for 66 IRIS² satellites. The definitive contract is still pending.
- MDA Space Announces Over $100M Contract From Thales Alenia Space For Antennas On 66 EU IRIS² Satellites; Definitive Contract PendingThales Alenia Space awarded MDA an antenna contract valued above $100M for 66 EU IRIS² satellites. The definitive contract has not yet been signed.
- 49North Qualifies Across All Five Streams of Canada's Defence Drone Initiative Marketplace49North, an MDA subsidiary, qualified across all five streams of Canada's Defence Drone Initiative marketplace. This allows it to bid on a wide range of uncrewed and counter-drone contracts.
About MDA Space Ltd.
MDA Space is a Toronto-based space technology company that builds satellites, satellite antennas and subsystems, space robotics such as Canadarm3, and sells Earth-observation data. It is listed on the TSX and has also traded on the NYSE since a March 2026 IPO there, and it is known for supplying whole satellite constellations like Globalstar's and for a growing defence business.
How it makes money
Its income comes mostly from long-term contracts in three areas. Satellite Systems is the largest and fastest-growing: it designs and builds satellites, digital antennas and subsystems for commercial constellations and governments. Geointelligence sells radar Earth-observation data and analytics, including RADARSAT and the planned CHORUS satellites. Robotics & Space Operations builds space robotics, mainly Canadarm3, and earned about C$80M in Q3 2026. The company expects about C$1.9–1.95B in revenue for 2026 and has a backlog of about C$3.9B. It is also buying Blue Canyon Technologies, a US maker of small satellites.
What usually moves MDA
- New contract wins and backlog conversion
- Satellite constellation programs (Globalstar, Telesat, IRIS²)
- Canadian and allied defence and space agency budgets
- Acquisitions such as Blue Canyon Technologies
- Share offerings and debt financing that dilute or fund growth