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NI · Analysis updated Nov 10, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Why is NiSource Inc. (NI) stock moving?
NiSource reported a Q3 2026 beat on Oct 28: adjusted EPS of $0.27 versus a $0.23 estimate and sales of $1.345B versus $1.339B. The company narrowed FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance to the upper half of $2.02-$2.07, introduced FY2027 guidance of $2.22-$2.30 (midpoint slightly under the $2.25 estimate), and raised its consolidated adjusted EPS CAGR target to 10%-11% for 2027-2033 on a $40.0B seven-year capex plan. The Microsoft-linked GenCo savings expansion to about $1.75B and the $57.5M data center customer savings plan add to the growth and regulatory narrative. Analysts responded with higher targets: Jefferies to $52 from $49 (Oct 30) and HSBC to $51.50 from $49.50 (Nov 3), both above the Nov 10 close of $45.29. The stock closed at $43.58 on the earnings day on the heaviest volume of the window (8.94M), then rose about 4% over the period to $45.29 (Oct 22 close $43.40). Price has been working into the $45.4-$46.0 resistance zone; Nov 5 printed a high of $45.99 but closed at $44.44. Support sits near $44.0-$44.2 (Nov 4 and Nov 6 lows). Volume has faded, with Nov 10 at 3.64M shares, the lowest of the window, suggesting the post-earnings move is losing momentum. A $1.78M executive share sale on Nov 3 is a minor counterpoint. The 8-K filed Nov 9 also disclosed the close of a $600M 5.400% notes offering due 2032, which is routine financing for the capex plan.
News behind the analysis
- NiSource EVP, Chief Op & Safety Officer Sells Shares Worth Over $1.7 MillionNiSource executive William Jefferson Jr. sold 40,000 shares for approximately $1.78 million.
- HSBC Adjusts Price Target on NiSource to $51.50 From $49.50HSBC raised its NiSource price target from $49.50 to $51.50.
- Jefferies Adjusts Price Target on NiSource to $52 From $49Jefferies raised its NiSource price target from $49 to $52.
- NiSource Announces $57.5 Million in Customer Savings from Data Center DevelopmentNiSource plans to pass $57.5 million in savings to electric customers through a new initiative tied to data center development.
- NiSource Announces Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Updates Long-Term Capital PlanNiSource reported Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of $0.27, above analyst expectations, and extended its capital expenditure plan through 2033 with $40.0 billion of seven-year spending.
- NiSource Reports Q3 2026 Financial Results and Updates GuidanceNiSource reported Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of $0.27 and updated its 2026 and 2027 earnings guidance.
- NiSource Raises FY2026 Adj EPS Guidance from $2.02-$2.07 to $2.04-$2.07 vs $2.05 EstNiSource narrowed its FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance to the upper half of the range, now $2.04-$2.07 against a $2.05 estimate.
- NiSource Sees FY2027 Adj EPS $2.22-$2.30 vs $2.25 EstNiSource guided FY2027 adjusted EPS to $2.22-$2.30, with the midpoint slightly below the $2.25 estimate.
- NiSource Q3 Adj. EPS $0.27 Beats $0.23 EstimateNiSource's third-quarter adjusted EPS of $0.27 beat the $0.23 analyst estimate.
- NiSource Q3 Sales $1.345B Beat $1.339B EstimateNiSource's third-quarter sales of $1.345 billion slightly beat the $1.339 billion estimate.
About NiSource Inc.
NiSource is a regulated utility holding company based in Merrillville, Indiana. It serves roughly 4 million customers, mostly with natural gas in six states (including Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Kentucky and Maryland) and with electricity through NIPSCO in northern Indiana. It stands out for its large and growing spending on data-center power, which includes a generation company (GenCo) tied to agreements with large tech customers such as Microsoft.
How it makes money
Most of its revenue comes from regulated rates that customers pay for natural gas distribution (the majority, roughly 55-60%) and electric service in Indiana (roughly 40%). State regulators set those rates so the company can earn a return on the money it invests in pipes, power lines and power plants. The company has a capital plan of roughly $40 billion through 2033, including about $8 billion for GenCo data-center power. Profit growth depends on getting regulators to approve rate increases that recover this spending.
What usually moves NI
- State rate case outcomes and regulatory approvals
- Data-center power deals and GenCo progress
- Interest rates and the cost of debt and new shares
- Weather and storm costs
- Execution of its large capital plan