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NMIH · Analysis updated Nov 10, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Why is NMI Holdings Inc. Common Stock (NMIH) stock moving?
Q3 2026 results on Nov 5 were mixed. Revenue of $187.55M beat the $159.80M estimate and net income reached $93.5M, but adjusted EPS of $1.23 missed the $1.30 estimate. The stock closed at $44.27 on Nov 5 and fell 11.8% to $39.03 on Nov 6, with volume near 1.95M shares and about 29,800 trades, roughly double the prior sessions. It has since stabilized between about $37.79 and $39.86, closing at $38.73 on Nov 10, below the pre-earnings range of roughly $41 to $44.6. Analyst views are split: B of A downgraded to Neutral with a $44 target on Oct 30, Barclays kept Equal-Weight and cut its target to $42 on Nov 6, and JP Morgan kept Overweight and raised its target to $46 on Nov 10. The average of the three targets is about $44, roughly 14% above the Nov 10 close. The price sits below all three targets, but the earnings miss and the two target cuts weigh on the near-term picture. The data does not include guidance or the 10-Q details, so the longer view rests on the revenue beat and the price gap to targets.
News behind the analysis
- JP Morgan Maintains Overweight on NMI Holdings, Raises Price Target to $46JP Morgan kept its Overweight rating and raised its price target to $46 after the Q3 report.
- Barclays Maintains Equal-Weight on NMI Holdings, Lowers Price Target to $42Barclays kept its Equal-Weight rating and cut its price target to $42, below the $44.27 close before results.
- NMI Holdings Q3 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptFull transcript of the Q3 2026 earnings call, held on Thursday, Nov 5.
- NMI Holdings, Inc. Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial ResultsNMI reported Q3 2026 net income of $93.5 million for the quarter ended Sept 30, 2026.
- NMI Holdings Q3 Adj. EPS $1.23 Misses $1.30 Estimate, Sales $187.550M Beat $159.802M EstimateAdjusted EPS of $1.23 missed the $1.30 estimate, while revenue of $187.55M beat the $159.80M estimate.
- B of A Securities Downgrades NMI Holdings to Neutral, Lowers Price Target to $44B of A Securities downgraded NMIH to Neutral and cut its price target to $44 ahead of earnings.
About NMI Holdings Inc. Common Stock
NMI Holdings, based in Emeryville, California, is the parent company of National Mortgage Insurance Corporation (National MI). National MI sells private mortgage insurance on US home loans, which protects lenders when a borrower with a small down payment stops paying. It started in 2012, which makes it the youngest of the big US mortgage insurers. It has only about 225 employees and leans heavily on reinsurance and other ways to pass risk to other parties.
How it makes money
Most of its revenue, roughly 85%, comes from premiums on the mortgage insurance it has in force, which is about $220 billion or more. Total quarterly revenue in 2026 was about $185 million, with about $155 million of that from earned premiums. Most of the rest, roughly 15%, is investment income from its bond portfolio. Profit depends on how much it pays out in claims when insured borrowers default, and how much it spends on running the business.
What usually moves NMIH
- US home purchase volumes and mortgage rates
- Mortgage default and claim trends
- Persistency (how long insured loans stay on the books before refinancing or payoff)
- Pricing competition among mortgage insurers
- Housing policy, including changes at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and capital rules