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RDN · Analysis updated Nov 10, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Why is Radian Group Inc. (RDN) stock moving?
Radian's Q3 2026 results beat expectations: adjusted EPS of $1.44 versus a $1.20 estimate, net premiums earned of $548M versus $542M, and GAAP EPS from continuing operations of $1.28. Revenue rose 106% year over year, largely from the Inigo acquisition, and the specialty segment posted an 80.4% combined ratio helped by a benign catastrophe quarter. Mortgage insurance in force hit a record $286 billion, though the mortgage combined ratio edged up to 36.6%. Capital return is substantial: $379 million of year-to-date buybacks, about 8% of shares outstanding, plus $117 million more in October. The Inigo letter-of-credit facility was raised from $620M to $880M and Radian was added as guarantor, which supports the specialty business. Analyst reaction was mixed: KBW kept Outperform but cut its target to $43, while Barclays kept Equal-Weight and raised its target to $37. The stock jumped to a 30-day high of $39.36 on the earnings day (Nov 5, 1.28M shares), then fell to $35.97 on Nov 6. It has since recovered to $36.76 on Nov 10 on 1.53M shares, about 22% above the 30-day average of roughly 1.26M. The shares are trading close to Barclays' target, so the earnings beat appears largely priced in. Leadership news (Kobell confirmed as permanent CFO, a board retirement effective Jan 31, 2027) is routine. Key risks include integration of Inigo, mortgage credit cycles and housing activity.
News behind the analysis
- Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Maintains Outperform on Radian Group, Lowers Price Target to $43Keefe, Bruyette & Woods kept its Outperform rating on Radian Group but lowered its price target to $43. The stock closed at $36.76 on Nov 10.
- Barclays Maintains Equal-Weight on Radian Group, Raises Price Target to $37Barclays kept its Equal-Weight rating and raised its price target to $37, close to the recent trading price. The target implies limited upside from current levels.
- Radian Group Q3 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptManagement discussed third-quarter 2026 results, including the benign catastrophe quarter and specialty underwriting performance. The transcript is the full record of the call.
- Radian Group Inc. Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial ResultsRadian reported adjusted EPS and revenue above analyst expectations for Q3 2026. Revenue grew 106% year over year, and primary mortgage insurance in force reached a record $286 billion.
- Radian Group Q3 Adj. EPS $1.44 Beats $1.20 Estimate, Sales $548.283M Beat $541.986M EstimateAdjusted EPS of $1.44 beat the $1.20 estimate, and net premiums earned of $548.3M beat the $542.0M estimate. Year-to-date share repurchases reached $379 million, or 8% of shares outstanding.
- Radian Group Announces Executive Leadership AppointmentsRadian named a new Chief Financial Officer and Chief Information Officer and reshuffled leadership at its specialty subsidiary Inigo. The changes are aimed at supporting its growth strategy.
- Radian Group Appoints Dan Kobell as Chief Financial OfficerRadian formally appointed Dan Kobell as CFO after he served as interim CFO since February 2026. The appointment makes the interim role permanent.
- Radian Group Appoints Interim CFO Dan Kobell As CFORadian confirmed Dan Kobell, who had been interim CFO, as its permanent Chief Financial Officer. The move gives the company a stable finance leadership team after the Q3 report.
About Radian Group Inc.
Radian Group, based in Wayne, Pennsylvania, is one of the largest US private mortgage insurers. It protects lenders when homeowners with small down payments stop paying their loans. In February 2026 it bought Inigo, a specialty insurer that operates through Lloyd's of London, for about $1.67 billion, turning Radian into a global insurer with several business lines instead of a pure US mortgage play.
How it makes money
Its main income is premiums from private mortgage insurance on US home loans, usually ones where the buyer put down less than 20%. It also earns investment income on the large bond portfolio it holds against future claims. Since Inigo joined in early 2026, Radian also collects premiums from specialty insurance and reinsurance sold worldwide through Lloyd's. Management expected the deal to roughly double annual revenue, and Q1 2026 revenue was about $466 million, up roughly 58% from a year earlier. Radian has said it plans to sell its smaller mortgage conduit, title and real estate services businesses.
What usually moves RDN
- US mortgage delinquency and default rates
- Home prices and mortgage origination volumes
- Interest rates and investment income
- Specialty and catastrophe insurance losses at Inigo/Lloyd's
- Regulatory capital rules (PMIERs) and capital returned to shareholders