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PGY · Analysis updated Nov 10, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Why is Pagaya Technologies Ltd. Class A Ordinary Shares (PGY) stock moving?
Pagaya reported Q3 2026 on Oct 29 with adjusted EPS of $1.07, ahead of the $0.97 estimate. Sales results conflict across sources: fiscal.ai cites revenue of $390.5M, while Benzinga reports $362.2M, below the $382.1M estimate. Management narrowed FY2026 sales guidance to $1.450B-$1.500B, a midpoint slightly above the $1.464B estimate, but the Q4 sales range of $355M-$405M sits below the $378.1M consensus. The stock opened at 17.02 on Oct 29, then closed at 20.81 on 3.3M shares, roughly 1.6 times the recent average. It has since fallen to a 30-day low close of 17.21 on Nov 10, about 17% below the post-earnings close, on volume of about 2.2M. Analysts responded positively, with B. Riley raising its target to $38 and TD Cowen raising its target to $27 with Buy ratings. Those targets sit well above the current price, but the post-earnings selloff and the weaker Q4 outlook are the main counterweights. The 10-Q filed Nov 2 and the Oct 5 borrower-characteristics presentation were not detailed in the supplied data, so they are not weighed here.
News behind the analysis
- Pagaya to Participate in Upcoming Investor Conferences and EventsPagaya announced it will take part in upcoming investor conferences and events. The release contains no new financial figures.
- TD Cowen Maintains Buy Rating and Raises Price Target for Pagaya TechnologiesTD Cowen reaffirmed its Buy rating and raised its price target from $25 to $27 after the quarter.
- B. Riley Lifts Price Target on Pagaya Technologies to $38B. Riley raised its price target from $36 to $38 and kept its Buy rating.
- TD Cowen Maintains Buy on Pagaya Technologies, Raises Price Target to $27TD Cowen kept its Buy rating and lifted its price target to $27 following the third-quarter results.
- B. Riley Securities Reiterates Buy on Pagaya Technologies, Raises Price Target to $38B. Riley Securities reiterated its Buy rating and raised its price target to $38.
- Pagaya Technologies Ltd. Reports Q3 2026 Financial ResultsPagaya reported Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.07 and revenue of $390.5 million. Benzinga reports a different sales figure of $362.2 million for the same quarter.
- Pagaya Technologies Q3 Adj. EPS $1.07 Beats $0.97 Estimate, Sales $362.155M Miss $382.063M EstimateAdjusted EPS beat the $0.97 estimate, while reported sales of $362.2 million missed the $382.1 million estimate.
- Pagaya Techs Sees Q4 Sales $355.000M-$405.000M vs $378.060M EstPagaya guided Q4 sales to $355M-$405M, with the midpoint below the $378.1M consensus estimate.
- Pagaya Technologies Narrows FY2026 Sales Guidance from $1.425B-$1.525B to $1.450B-$1.500B vs $1.464B EstFull-year 2026 sales guidance was narrowed to $1.450B-$1.500B, with the midpoint slightly above the $1.464B estimate.
About Pagaya Technologies Ltd. Class A Ordinary Shares
Pagaya Technologies runs an AI-driven underwriting network based in New York and Tel Aviv. It helps banks, lenders and auto finance companies approve more personal, auto and point-of-sale loans, then sells those loans to institutional investors, mostly through asset-backed securitizations. Pagaya does not lend directly to consumers. Instead it sits between partner lenders and Wall Street investors. It has issued over 100 ABS deals and has reported several consecutive quarters of GAAP profit, with Q3 2026 revenue around $390 million.
How it makes money
Most revenue comes from network fees that partner lenders and investors pay when loans pass through Pagaya's models. These include fees for screening applicants and fees tied to the loans it places with investors. Pagaya also earns interest and investment income because it keeps a slice of the securitizations it sponsors, as regulators require. That retained piece also leaves it exposed to credit losses on those loans.
What usually moves PGY
- Volume of loans placed through partner lenders
- Consumer credit performance and loss rates
- Interest rates and demand in the asset-backed securities market
- Adding or losing large lending partners
- Funding costs and company debt levels