UPST · Analysis updated Nov 10, 2026, 6:00 PM ET

Why is Upstart Holdings, Inc. Common stock (UPST) stock moving?

Upstart's Q3 2026 print beat on sales ($370.5M vs $361.1M est.) and reported record contribution profit with positive contribution margins on secured products, but the company cut FY2026 sales guidance to $1.320B from $1.400B, well below the $1.416B consensus. Earnings coverage conflicts: an initial Benzinga note showed adjusted EPS of $0.33 missing the $0.63 estimate, while a later correction gave $0.65, a beat. Sell-side reaction was broadly negative: Morgan Stanley cut its target from $35 to $24, and Stephens, Goldman, Truist, B. Riley, Citi, BTIG and Needham all lowered targets to between $24 and $46, with most keeping their existing ratings. Filings add two items: the Chief Accounting Officer plans to resign effective Nov 30, with the CFO as interim, and an October 16 $200M MUFG revolver was set up to fund the establishment of Upstart Bank. The price data shows the reaction: shares fell from $23.02 (Oct 30) to $21.31 on Nov 2 on about 12.3M shares, roughly 3-4 times the prior-month average, rebounded to $23.38 on Nov 4, then slid back to a 30-day low close of $20.41 on Nov 10 on 8.7M shares, with an intraday low of $19.71. The Nov 10 Citi conference appearance mentioned macro headwinds but no new numbers. Overall, the guidance cut and the analyst target reductions are weighing on the stock, while the October originations, the margin and profit commentary, and the bank funding are the main offsets.

News behind the analysis

About Upstart Holdings, Inc. Common stock

Financials · Consumer lending / fintech

Upstart is a Burlingame, California-based AI lending marketplace. It connects consumers with more than 100 banks and credit unions that use its AI underwriting models to approve personal loans, auto loans, home equity lines and its revolving Cash Line product. Its main distinguishing feature is that it uses machine learning instead of traditional credit scores alone, and it says more than 90% of loans are fully automated.

How it makes money

Almost all revenue comes from fees that lending partners and loan buyers pay for referring borrowers, underwriting and servicing loans. In Q3 2026 those fees were about $364 million out of roughly $371 million in total revenue. A smaller part comes from net interest income and fair-value changes on loans Upstart keeps on its own balance sheet. Personal (unsecured) loans make up most of the fee revenue, and secured products such as auto loans and home equity lines are growing quickly from a small base. Because the business relies on outside capital to fund loans, it depends on banks, credit unions, institutional buyers and asset-backed securities markets.

What usually moves UPST

Similar companies

SOFI, LC, PGY, AFRM, OPRT

All stock analyses · Stock market today

This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. It is based solely on the news and market data provided. Verify facts with primary sources and consider your own circumstances before making any investment decision.