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SMG · Analysis updated Nov 10, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Why is The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) stock moving?
SMG rallied from about $59 on Oct 28 to an intraday high of $69.62 on Nov 4 after its Q4 report beat adjusted EPS estimates, while sales came in slightly light. The FY2027 adjusted EPS guide of $4.70-$4.90 has a midpoint of $4.80, above the $4.71 consensus, and the sales range of $3.355B-$3.420B brackets the $3.361B estimate. The move was confirmed by heavy volume of about 2.8M shares on Nov 4, roughly 2.5x the prior-week average. Since then the stock has eased back, closing at $65.13 on Nov 10 on about 990K shares, so it is trading in a $64-$67 band. Wells Fargo and UBS both raised targets to $76 and $77 on Nov 5-6 and kept positive ratings, which sits about 17-18% above the last close. The Black Kow organic brand acquisition closed Oct 29, and the $0.66 quarterly dividend was declared Nov 3. An October 8-K disclosed a routine separation agreement for a former strategy officer, which does not look material. The main caveats are the sales miss against the quarter estimate and the fact that analyst targets are recent and could move with the sector.
News behind the analysis
- UBS Maintains Buy on Scotts Miracle Gro, Raises Price Target to $77UBS kept its Buy rating and lifted its price target to $77 from $70, about 18% above the Nov 10 close of $65.13.
- Wells Fargo Maintains Overweight Rating and Raises Price Target for Scotts Miracle-GroWells Fargo kept its Overweight rating and raised its price target to $76 from $71 after the Q4 report.
- UBS Adjusts Price Target on Scotts Miracle-Gro to $77, Maintains Buy RatingUBS raised its price target to $77 from $70 and maintained its Buy rating on the stock.
- Wells Fargo Maintains Overweight on Scotts Miracle Gro, Raises Price Target to $76Wells Fargo reiterated its Overweight rating and set a $76 price target on Scotts Miracle-Gro shares.
- Scotts Miracle-Gro Stock Jumps After Q4 EarningsShares traded higher on Nov 4 after the company reported fourth-quarter earnings that beat expectations. The stock hit an intraday high of $69.62 that day on about 2.8M shares.
- The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company Reports Fiscal 2026 Full-Year ResultsThe company reported fourth-quarter and full-year fiscal 2026 results, with adjusted EPS above guidance. The results covered the year ended Sep 30, 2026.
- Scotts Miracle Gro Sees FY2027 Adj EPS $4.70-$4.90 vs $4.71 Est; Sees Sales $3.355B-$3.420B vs $3.361B EstThe FY2027 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint of $4.80 sits above the $4.71 consensus, while the sales range of $3.355B-$3.420B brackets the $3.361B estimate.
- Scotts Miracle Gro Q4 Adj. EPS $(2.16) Beats $(2.21) Estimate, Sales $302.900M Miss $306.098M EstimateQ4 adjusted EPS of $(2.16) beat the $(2.21) estimate, while sales of $302.9M missed the $306.1M estimate.
- Scotts Miracle-Gro Declares Quarterly Cash DividendThe Board approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.66 per share.
About The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company
Scotts Miracle-Gro, based in Marysville, Ohio, is North America's largest seller of branded consumer lawn and garden products, including Scotts, Miracle-Gro and Ortho. Under its "SMG 2.0" plan, it is moving away from low-margin commodity products like mulch and putting more focus on premium brands and e-commerce.
How it makes money
Most of its revenue comes from selling lawn fertilizer, grass seed, plant food, potting soil and pest-control products in the US. Big home-improvement and mass retailers like Home Depot, Lowe's and Walmart carry most of these products, and a growing share is sold online. A smaller part of the business is hydroponic gardening gear sold under the Hawthorne name. Total net sales for fiscal 2026 (year ended September) were about $3.3 billion. Sales are heavily seasonal and peak in spring.
What usually moves SMG
- Spring lawn and garden season weather
- Consumer spending at big-box retailers
- Fertilizer and commodity input costs, such as urea
- Debt levels and interest expense (net leverage near 3.9x)
- Progress on profit margins under its branded-product shift