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USFD · Analysis updated Nov 10, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Why is US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) stock moving?
USFD closed at $109.85 on Nov 10, up about 5% from $104.05 on Oct 22 and near the top of its 30-day range (99.83-112.57). The Q3 report on Nov 5 was mixed: adjusted EPS of $1.26 beat the $1.24 estimate and independent restaurant case volume grew 5.0%, but sales of $10.402B missed the $10.590B estimate and FY2026 sales guidance was narrowed below consensus. Shares spiked to $112.57 intraday on Nov 5 and then closed at $106.85. The Nov 8 report that US Foods and Performance Food Group agreed to share confidential information for a potential merger came with an up move to $109.94 on Nov 9 on 4.4M shares, roughly 1.6x the 30-day average. Analyst support is firm: UBS raised its target to $135, Deutsche Bank to $131 and TD Cowen to $125, while BTIG kept $120, all with Buy ratings. Risks include a Teamsters strike authorization in Arizona-area workers, the still-unconfirmed merger outcome, and guidance that implies slower top-line growth.
News behind the analysis
- US Foods and Performance Food Group Explore Potential MergerThe two foodservice distributors agreed to share confidential information to explore a possible merger. No deal terms or timeline were disclosed in the report.
- Deutsche Bank Raises Price Target on US Foods Holding Corp.Deutsche Bank lifted its price target from $127 to $131 and kept a Buy rating. The target sits above the recent close of $109.85.
- UBS Adjusts US Foods Price Target to $135 From $127UBS raised its price target from $127 to $135 and maintained a Buy rating after the quarterly report.
- TD Cowen Maintains Buy on US Foods Holdings, Raises Price Target to $125TD Cowen kept its Buy rating and raised its price target to $125 following the third-quarter report.
- BTIG Maintains Buy Rating on US FoodsBTIG maintained its Buy rating and kept its $120 price target, which is below the recent share price.
- US Foods Reports Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 EarningsNet sales rose 2.1% to $10.4B and net income rose 42.5% to $218M. Adjusted EBITDA grew 9.9% to $555M, and $191M of shares were repurchased.
- US Foods Hldg Q3 Adj. EPS $1.26 Beats $1.24 Estimate, Sales $10.402B Miss $10.590B EstimateAdjusted EPS beat consensus by $0.02, while sales came in about $188M below the $10.590B estimate.
- US Foods Holdings Narrows FY2026 Adj EPS Guidance from $4.70-$4.93 to $4.70-$4.78 vs $4.76 Est; Narrows FY2026 Sales Guidance from $41.001B-$41.789B to $41.001B-$41.395B vs $41.474B EstThe company narrowed FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $4.70-$4.78, with a midpoint slightly below the $4.76 estimate. Sales guidance was narrowed to $41.001B-$41.395B, below the $41.474B estimate.
- Teamsters Local 282 Members Authorize Strike at US FoodsMore than 260 Teamsters Local 282 members unanimously voted to authorize a strike, citing demands for higher wages, better benefits and safer working conditions.
- US Foods Holding Corp. Reports Fiscal Second Quarter 2026 Financial ResultsReported increased earnings, margin expansion and growth in independent restaurant demand, according to a Zacks-sourced write-up.
About US Foods Holding Corp.
US Foods is one of the largest foodservice distributors in the US, delivering food and kitchen supplies to about 250,000 customer locations like restaurants, hospitals, hotels and schools. It is known for its focus on independent restaurants, its private-label brands, its digital ordering tools and its CHEF'STORE cash-and-carry outlets.
How it makes money
Almost all of its revenue (roughly $40 billion a year) comes from buying food and related products in bulk from manufacturers and reselling them to foodservice operators through more than 70 broadline distribution centers, plus over 90 cash-and-carry stores. Profit margins are thin: adjusted EBITDA is around 5% of sales. Independent restaurants and its own private-label products earn higher margins than large chain accounts.
What usually moves USFD
- Restaurant traffic and eating-out spending
- Independent restaurant case volume growth
- Food cost inflation or deflation
- Fuel and labor costs
- Share buybacks and acquisitions