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CWST · Analysis updated Nov 10, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Why is Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST) stock moving?
Casella reported Q3 2026 revenue of $559.2M, up 15.2%, and adjusted EBITDA of $133.5M, up 11.4%, with solid waste pricing up 5.5% and landfill volume up 12.8%. However, adjusted EPS of $0.35 missed the $0.38 estimate and sales slightly missed the $563.2M consensus. A $7.0M net loss reflected an impairment charge, adjusted net income fell $5.1M, and year-to-date adjusted free cash flow dropped 7.0% to $111.1M. Management narrowed 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance rather than raising it, reaffirmed adjusted free cash flow guidance, and raised revenue guidance to $2.100B-$2.110B on higher floating fuel fees. The Mid-Atlantic region was behind plan, but management reported a positive inflection in October. Acquisitions of six businesses with over $170M in annualized revenue support growth. The stock rose from about $90 on Oct 29 to $100.06 on Nov 5, then fell 6.1% on Nov 10 to a $93.00 close on 1.46M shares, about twice the recent average volume. BofA raised its target to $94, close to the current price. The reaction reflects the earnings miss and narrower EBITDA outlook, offset by pricing strength, volume growth, and the Mid-Atlantic recovery signs.
News behind the analysis
- Casella Waste Systems Q3 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptCasella discussed its third-quarter 2026 results on the earnings call, including Mid-Atlantic execution and fuel fee rollout. The transcript is the full management commentary behind the release.
- BofA Securities Adjusts Price Target on Casella Waste Systems to $94 From $91BofA Securities raised its price target on Casella from $91 to $94 after the quarterly report. The stock closed at $93 on Nov 10.
- Casella Waste Systems, Inc. Announces Third Quarter 2026 ResultsRevenue rose 15.2% to $559.2M and adjusted EBITDA rose 11.4% to $133.5M. The company posted a $7.0M net loss due to an impairment, narrowed 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance, and reaffirmed adjusted free cash flow guidance.
- Casella Waste Sys Q3 Adj. EPS $0.35 Misses $0.38 Estimate, Sales $559.231M Miss $563.179M EstimateAdjusted EPS of $0.35 fell short of the $0.38 estimate, and sales of $559.2M missed the $563.2M consensus. The miss came on the same day the company reported its results.
- Casella Waste Systems Raises FY2026 Sales Guidance from $2.090B-$2.110B to $2.100B-$2.110B vs $2.104B EstCasella raised the low end of its FY2026 revenue guidance to $2.100B-$2.110B, which sits near the $2.104B estimate. The increase reflects higher floating fuel fees.
About Casella Waste Systems Inc
Casella Waste Systems is a Vermont-based, vertically integrated waste company that collects trash and recycling, runs landfills and transfer stations, and processes recyclables, mainly in the US Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Compared with the national giants it is a smaller regional player, and it grows largely by buying up local haulers one at a time (about five deals in 2026, adding roughly $165 million in yearly revenue).
How it makes money
About 80% of revenue comes from solid waste operations: collection fees from homes, businesses and towns, plus disposal fees charged at its landfills and transfer stations. The other roughly 20% comes from Resource Solutions, which covers recycling processing, sales of recovered materials, organics management and waste services for national accounts. Full-year 2026 revenue is guided at roughly $2.1 billion.
What usually moves CWST
- Collection and landfill pricing increases
- Pace and integration of acquisitions
- Landfill permits and remaining disposal capacity
- Fuel, labor and interest costs
- Prices for recycled commodities