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RSG · Analysis updated Nov 10, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Why is Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) stock moving?
Republic Services beat Q3 2026 estimates on sales ($4.559B vs $4.418B) and adjusted EPS ($1.94 vs $1.93), raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $17.425B-$17.475B, and announced a $5B buyback effective January 1, 2027. Several brokers raised price targets in the following days, with Citigroup at $281, RBC at $277, Wells Fargo at $270, JP Morgan at $265, Barclays at $254 and Bernstein at $230, so the targets bracket the current price. The stock jumped on Oct 30 on 2.4M shares (close $244.04 vs $236.28 the prior day), then traded between about $242 and $255, with a Nov 5 intraday high of $254.39. The Nov 10 close of $247.62 sits in the middle of that range on the lowest volume in the window (about 0.8M shares), so the post-earnings move has held but not extended. The buyback starts only in 2027, and the main catalysts are now largely priced in.
News behind the analysis
- Republic Services Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial ResultsReported Q3 2026 net income of $592 million and announced a new $5 billion share repurchase authorization.
- Republic Servs Q3 Adj. EPS $1.94 Beats $1.93 Estimate, Sales $4.559B Beat $4.418B EstimateQ3 adjusted EPS of $1.94 narrowly beat the $1.93 estimate, and sales of $4.559B beat the $4.418B estimate.
- Republic Services Raises FY2026 Sales Guidance from $17.200B-$17.300B to $17.425B-$17.475B vs $17.327B EstFull-year 2026 revenue guidance was raised to $17.425B-$17.475B, above the prior $17.200B-$17.300B range and the $17.327B estimate.
- Republic Services Announces $5B Buyback Program, Effective January 1, 2027A $5 billion share repurchase program was announced, effective January 1, 2027.
- RBC Capital Maintains Outperform on Republic Services, Raises Price Target to $277RBC kept its Outperform rating and raised its price target to $277 after the Q3 report.
- JP Morgan Maintains Neutral on Republic Services, Raises Price Target to $265JP Morgan kept a Neutral rating and raised its price target to $265.
- Citigroup Maintains Buy on Republic Services, Raises Price Target to $281Citigroup kept its Buy rating and raised its price target to $281, the highest among recent updates.
- Wells Fargo Maintains Overweight on Republic Services, Raises Price Target to $270Wells Fargo kept an Overweight rating and raised its price target to $270.
- Barclays Maintains Equal-Weight on Republic Services, Raises Price Target to $254Barclays kept an Equal-Weight rating and raised its price target to $254, close to the current share price.
About Republic Services Inc.
Republic Services is a Phoenix-based company that collects, recycles and disposes of trash, and it is one of the largest environmental services providers in the US by revenue, with about $17.4 billion in revenue expected for 2026. It stands out for owning a large network of landfills, transfer stations and recycling centres, along with a growing environmental solutions business (special and hazardous waste) and renewable natural gas projects that capture gas from landfills.
How it makes money
Most of its revenue comes from collection fees paid by small and large businesses, homes (often through contracts with cities) and construction sites, with collection making up roughly two-thirds of the total. It also earns money from landfill and transfer-station disposal fees, its Environmental Solutions segment (special, industrial and hazardous waste, roughly a tenth of revenue), sales of recycled materials, and energy from landfill gas. Steady yearly price increases, which recently added about 5% to revenue, and frequent acquisitions of smaller haulers drive much of its growth.
What usually moves RSG
- Pricing increases vs. cost inflation
- Collection and construction-related volumes
- Acquisition activity
- Diesel fuel and recycled-commodity prices
- Environmental Solutions and renewable natural gas growth