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GFL · Analysis updated Nov 10, 2026, 4:45 PM ET
Why is GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL) stock moving?
GFL fell sharply on Nov 10. It opened at $40.89 and closed at $42.41, about 7.6% below the $45.88 close on Nov 9. Volume was about 22.0M shares, roughly five times the recent daily levels of 2.5M to 7M. The cause is the board ending its four-month strategic review. It unanimously rejected a take-private offer of $52 per share, about $22B, from Blackstone, KKR and Energy Capital Partners. The board wanted $58 or more. The offer was a 13% premium to the prior close, and the stock had risen more than 20% during the review. That premium is now gone. GFL also plans to let BC Partners sell a significant part of its stake to outside investors, which creates a share-supply overhang. The stock recovered from an intraday low of $40.74 to close at $42.41, so some buyers stepped in at lower prices. The board says it remains open to proposals that reflect intrinsic value, and management points to free cash flow per share doubling over five years. Valuation is above its historical median on price-to-sales, and trailing earnings are negative. Reported coverage notes that 15 of 17 analysts see a price above $50 within a year. The near term is likely to be dominated by the stake-sale overhang and the loss of the takeover premium. Over longer horizons, the stock depends on the business delivering on the standalone plan.
News behind the analysis
- GFL Environmental Rejects Takeover Bids, Opts to Remain PublicGFL said it rejected buyout proposals and will stay public. A special committee found the bids did not reflect long-term prospects. Shares were down more than 8% to $42.01 in the afternoon.
- GFL Environmental Concludes Review of Unsolicited Inbound Proposals; Board Unanimously Reaffirms Strategy to Remain PublicThe company's Form 6-K says the independent Special Committee found the proposals were not in the company's best interests. The board unanimously decided that staying public is the best path. GFL says it remains open to any proposal that recognizes the company's intrinsic value.
- GFL Environmental shares slide 14% as board rebuffs buyout bidsShares fell as the board unanimously rejected unsolicited proposals. It had asked for $58 or more per share, and the private equity groups would not raise their bids.
- Why is GFL Environmental stock plummeting today?The stock fell about 15% pre-open to $39.02 as the buyout premium was erased. The planned BC Partners stake sale adds a share-supply overhang.
- GFL Environmental rejects $22 billion buyout offer from PE funds - GlobeThe $52 per share offer was a 13% premium to Monday's price. The board pushed for $58 or more.
- GFL Environmental turns down buyout offer from Wall Street private equity fundsThe Globe and Mail reports the board ended a four-month review without a sale. GFL plans to let BC Partners sell a significant part of its stake to outside investors.
- GFL Environmental Rejects $22B Buyout Offer, Stock Ticker GFL ReactsThe board sought at least $58 per share versus the $52 offer. The article notes a P/S ratio of 3.16, above the historical median of about 2.8x, and negative trailing EPS.
- GFL Environmental rejects takeover bids - TTGFL will stay public and facilitate purchases of financial sponsors' stakes. It remains open to future proposals. Management says free cash flow per share is on a path to double over five years.
- GFL Environmental rejects $22 billion buyout bid from Blackstone, KKR and Energy CapitalThe shares had risen more than 20% since the review was announced. 15 of 17 analysts forecast a price above $50 within a year.
- GFL Environmental edges higher on report BC Partners resolution nearsShares rose 1.1% on a report that BC Partners was close to a resolution. BC Partners could roll into a take-private or sell.
About GFL Environmental Inc. Subordinate Voting Shares
GFL Environmental is North America's fourth-largest diversified environmental services company. It collects, recycles and disposes of solid waste across Canada and 18 US states. It has grown quickly through a steady stream of acquisitions, including SECURE Waste Infrastructure, a deal it closed in 2026, and it recently moved its headquarters to Miami Beach.
How it makes money
GFL earns most of its revenue from solid waste services. It charges residential, commercial and municipal customers for garbage and recycling pickup, and it charges disposal fees at its transfer stations and landfills. It also earns money from selling recycled materials and from renewable natural gas projects at its landfills. After selling its Environmental Services business in 2025, it brought in about $6.6 billion in revenue that year. Its 2026 guidance, which includes acquisitions, is roughly $8 billion. Its adjusted EBITDA margin (core operating profit as a share of revenue) is around 30%. The company carries significant debt: net debt is in the mid-3x range of EBITDA.
What usually moves GFL
- Price increases and contract pricing
- Pace and size of acquisitions
- Debt levels and interest rates
- Diesel and recycled-commodity prices
- US dollar/Canadian dollar exchange rate