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MPC +0.44% today · Analysis updated Nov 13, 2026, 6:30 PM ET
Why is Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) stock up today?
Marathon Petroleum closed at $414.65 on Nov 13, up about 11% from the Nov 6 low of $372.74 and still roughly 13% below the Oct 26 high of $478.37. The rebound has come on falling volume: Nov 11 to Nov 13 traded 1.9M to 2.2M shares, versus 4.0M on the Nov 4 post-earnings selloff, which suggests the selling pressure has faded without heavy new buying. Analyst coverage is mixed. Mizuho kept a Neutral rating but cut its target to $440 from $457, and BMO lowered its target to $450 from $535, both in the last few days. Wells Fargo ($564), Goldman Sachs ($510), Piper Sandler ($466) and Morgan Stanley ($458) remain well above the price, and JPMorgan's $430 sits about 4% above it. The fundamental backdrop from the Nov 3 Q3 report is still supportive: adjusted EPS of $26.93 beat the $24.32 estimate, management guided to elevated refining margins through at least mid-2027 and record heavy Canadian crude processing in Q4, and the board raised the dividend 10% and approved a $5 billion buyback. The $4.2 billion sale of two refineries and related MPLX assets to CVR Energy is still pending. The main offset is that several target cuts show some analysts trimming expectations after the drop, so the near-term direction remains unsettled.
News behind the analysis
- Mizuho Maintains Neutral on Marathon Petroleum, Lowers Price Target to $440Mizuho kept its Neutral rating on Marathon Petroleum and cut its price target to $440. The stock closed at $414.65 on Nov 13.
- Mizuho Securities Adjusts Marathon Petroleum Price Target to $440Mizuho lowered its price target for Marathon Petroleum from $457 to $440. The change follows the Q3 report and the post-earnings selloff.
- BMO Capital Adjusts Price Target on Marathon Petroleum to $450 From $535BMO Capital cut its price target on Marathon Petroleum from $535 to $450, a sizable reduction. The target still sits above the Nov 13 close.
- Marathon Petroleum Raises Dividend 10% and Approves $5 Billion BuybackQ3 adjusted EPS of $26.93 beat the $24.32 estimate, with revenue of $56.49B and adjusted EBITDA of $11.7B. The company raised its dividend 10% and approved a $5B buyback.
- Marathon Petroleum Expects Elevated Refining Margins Through At Least Mid-2027Management guided to elevated refining margins through at least mid-2027. This outlook underpins the multi-quarter earnings view.
- Marathon Petroleum Expects Record Heavy Canadian Crude Processing In Q4The company expects record heavy Canadian crude processing in Q4 2026. This signals near-term operational strength.
- CVR Energy Makes Major Refining Push With $4.2 Billion Marathon Petroleum DealCVR Energy agreed to buy two Marathon refineries and related MPLX midstream assets for $4.2B. The deal's closing and proceeds remain pending.
- Wells Fargo Maintains Overweight on Marathon Petroleum, Raises Price Target to $564Wells Fargo kept an Overweight rating and raised its price target to $564, the highest on the Street. The target is well above the current price.
- Goldman Sachs Adjusts Marathon Petroleum Price Target to $510 From $519Goldman Sachs trimmed its price target on Marathon Petroleum from $519 to $510. The target remains well above the current price.
- JPMorgan Adjusts Price Target on Marathon PetroleumJPMorgan lowered its price target on Marathon Petroleum from $448 to $430. It is the lowest target among the analysts tracked and sits about 4% above the current price.
About MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION
Marathon Petroleum, based in Findlay, Ohio, is one of the largest US oil refiners. It turns crude oil into gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and other products, and it controls the pipeline and processing partnership MPLX. Unlike most refiners, it gets a large, steady stream of cash from MPLX: about $3.1 billion a year in expected payouts, which the company says more than covers its dividend and capital spending. In November 2026 it agreed to sell its St. Paul Park (Minnesota) and North Dakota refineries to CVR Energy.
How it makes money
Most of its revenue and profit comes from the refining and marketing segment. This part buys crude oil, refines it into fuels and sells them wholesale and through branded outlets. In Q3 2026 the segment produced about $9.9 billion of the roughly $11.7 billion total adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization). The midstream segment, mainly MPLX, earns steadier fees for gathering, processing, moving and storing crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs). Trailing revenue is roughly $175 billion. Profits rise and fall sharply with refining margins: Q1 2026 net income was about $0.5 billion, while Q3 was about $7.4 billion.
What usually moves MPC
- Refining margins (crack spreads)
- Gasoline, diesel and jet fuel demand
- Crude oil price differentials
- MPLX distribution growth
- Buybacks, dividends and asset sales