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VLO · Analysis updated Nov 10, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Why is Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) stock moving?
VLO has fallen from about $426 on Oct 22 to $350.71 on Nov 10, roughly 18% lower, with the sharpest drop on Oct 27 (-9.2% on 5.1M shares) on refining margin concerns and a second heavy-volume leg down on Nov 4 (5.7M shares, close $365.34). Since Nov 6 the stock has held in a $341-$357 band, with the lows of Nov 6, Nov 9 and Nov 10 clustering near $341-$342 on falling volume, which suggests selling pressure is easing for now. Analyst views are split: Morgan Stanley (Equal-Weight, target $420) and Mizuho ($436) sit well above the current price, while Evercore ISI cut its target to $325 on Oct 28, and Jim Cramer advised selling on Nov 10, arguing the refining rally is over. Company-specific developments are constructive over the longer term: the $320.5M purchase of LyondellBasell's Houston refinery site, which could restart 165 kb/d of light sweet crude capacity by year-end 2027, the completed St. Charles FCC optimization, and a $1.20 quarterly dividend. Near-term direction depends mostly on refining margins and crude spreads, which the news flow flags as both a source of the recent drop and of the wider year-over-year spreads. The Q3 results (Oct 22) are referenced in filings, but their figures are not in the provided data.
News behind the analysis
- Cramer Recommends Selling Valero Energy StockCNBC's Jim Cramer says Valero's refining-cycle rally is done and recommends selling VLO before margins normalize further.
- Valero Energy Corporation Reports Q3 2026 Operational Updates and Price Target AdjustmentValero completed its St. Charles FCC Unit optimization project in Q3 2026 and reported wider year-over-year crude price spreads, while Morgan Stanley raised its price target.
- Morgan Stanley Maintains Equal-Weight on Valero Energy, Raises Price Target to $420Morgan Stanley kept its Equal-Weight rating on Valero and raised its price target to $420.
- Mizuho Adjusts Price Target on Valero Energy to $436Mizuho raised its price target on Valero from $434 to $436.
- LyondellBasell Sells Houston Refinery Assets to ValeroLyondellBasell missed Q3 2026 earnings estimates and agreed to sell its Houston refinery site to Valero for $320.5M.
- Valero Energy Corporation to Acquire Former LyondellBasell Houston Refinery SiteValero agreed to buy the former LyondellBasell Houston refinery site and related assets for $320.5 million.
- Valero Energy To Acquire LyondellBasell's Houston Refinery For $320.5M; To Initially Restart 165Kb/d Of Light Sweet Crude Processing Capacity By Year-End 2027The acquisition is expected to initially restart 165 kb/d of light sweet crude processing capacity by year-end 2027.
- Evercore ISI Adjusts Price Target on Valero Energy to $325 From $385Evercore ISI lowered its price target on Valero from $385 to $325.
- What's Going On With Valero Energy Stock Wednesday?Valero stock rebounded nearly 2% premarket on Wednesday after a 9.2% drop triggered by refining margin concerns.
- Valero Energy Corporation Declares Regular Cash DividendValero's Board declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $1.20 per share on its common stock.
About Valero Energy Corporation
Valero Energy is a San Antonio-based company and one of the largest independent petroleum refiners in the world, running about 15 refineries in the US, Canada and the UK. It also has big renewable fuels operations, including a major ethanol business and its Diamond Green Diesel joint venture, which makes renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel.
How it makes money
Most of its revenue and profit comes from refining: Valero buys crude oil and other feedstocks and sells the gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and other products made from them. It earns the 'crack spread,' which is the gap between what crude costs and what the finished fuels sell for. Its renewable diesel and ethanol segments add smaller shares of revenue, and their profits rise and fall with policy credits and with prices for feedstocks and corn. Profits can swing widely from quarter to quarter. For example, Q3 2026 earnings came to roughly $24 per share, versus about $3.50 a year earlier, as refining margins jumped to about $39 per barrel from about $13.
What usually moves VLO
- Refining margins (crack spreads) for gasoline and diesel
- Crude oil prices and differentials between crude grades
- Refinery utilization and unplanned outages
- Renewable fuel policy, credits and regulation
- Global diesel supply and trade flows, including Russian exports