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TTD · Analysis updated Nov 10, 2026, 9:45 AM ET
Why is The Trade Desk (TTD) stock moving?
TTD beat Q3 expectations by a wide margin. Revenue was $736M against about $651M expected, adjusted EPS was $0.33 against $0.25, and adjusted EBITDA was $266M. Q4 guidance of at least $755M in revenue and $280M in EBITDA is above consensus of roughly $685-692M for revenue. The buyback authorization was raised to $1B, and retention stayed above 95%. Analysts raised price targets across the board: UBS to $19, RBC to $18, Susquehanna and Truist to $17, and Guggenheim and BMO to $16. Most ratings stayed at Hold or Sell, though, and MarketBeat's average rating is still Reduce. The quality of the beat is debated. Revenue was down 0.5% year over year, about 3 points came from a non-recurring partner, UBS estimates about 5 points from political ads, and Jefferies puts underlying revenue down 8.5%. GAAP net income fell to $38.1M from $115.5M. After-hours trading near $18.30 has not held: the stock is at $14.86 in early trading, close to Monday's $14.93 close. That suggests the market is weighing quality concerns against the guidance beat. Volume of about 16M shares in the first 15 minutes is well below Monday's 99.8M. The stock is still far below its 52-week high of $45.50, and several new targets sit at or near the current price.
News behind the analysis
- Trade Desk Q3 Adjusted Earnings, Revenue Fall; Q4 Guidance SetQ3 revenue was $736.0M against a FactSet estimate of $650.9M. Adjusted EPS was $0.33 against $0.25 expected, down from $0.45 a year earlier.
- The Trade Desk (TTD) Q3 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptRevenue fell 0.5% to $736M, and adjusted EBITDA was $266M at a 36% margin. Q4 guidance is at least $755M revenue and $280M EBITDA. About 3 points of Q3 revenue came from a strategic partner and will not recur.
- The Trade Desk Stock Soars on Solid Q3 Print as Turnaround Takes ShapeThe stock rose about 23% to $18.32 in extended trading. Q4 revenue guidance of at least $755M compares with a $685M analyst estimate.
- Trade Desk Q3 earnings: net income falls to $38.1MGAAP net income was $38.1M against $115.5M a year ago. Adjusted EBITDA was $265.8M against $317.5M. Retention stayed above 95%, and the buyback authorization is now $1B.
- Trade Desk (TTD) Stock Jumps 15% as Q3 Results Top Estimates and Q4 Outlook BeatsThe stock closed up 15.5% at $14.93 on Monday, its biggest daily gain since March 5.
- Trade Desk (TTD) Stock Gains 15% After Q3 Earnings Beat, Best Day Since MarchAdjusted EBITDA of $266M compares with an estimate of about $161M. Jefferies says revenue fell 8.5% excluding political ads and one-time items.
- UBS raises Trade Desk stock price target on budget loss slowdownUBS raised its target to $19 from $15 and kept a Buy rating. It estimates a one-time benefit of about 3 points and a political tailwind of about 5 points, and says budget losses look to be slowing.
- RBC raises Trade Desk stock price target to $18 on strong resultsRBC raised its target to $18 from $15 and kept a Sector Perform rating. It raised its estimates after revenue and EBITDA came in well above expectations.
- BMO raises Trade Desk stock price target on strong Q3 resultsBMO raised its target to $16 from $15 and kept Market Perform. Revenue and EBITDA came in 13% and 63% above consensus, and management expects political ads to be a bit higher in Q4.
- Trade Desk Q3 Results Beat Expectations, But Analyst Flags Revenue Composition ConcernsMoffettNathanson raised its target to $8 from $6 and said the revenue mix leaves a lot to be desired. Citi raised its target to $12 and kept a Sell rating. Of 36 analysts, 23 rate the stock Hold.
- Trade Desk (NASDAQ:TTD) Stock Gets Price Target Increase from GuggenheimGuggenheim raised its target to $16 from $13 and kept a Neutral rating. MarketBeat shows an average rating of Reduce and an average target of $18.55.
About The Trade Desk, Inc.
The Trade Desk is a Ventura, California-based company that runs a self-service, cloud-based platform advertisers and agencies use to buy digital ads programmatically, meaning automatically and in real time. It works only for ad buyers and doesn't own media, so it presents itself as an objective alternative to the closed systems run by Google, Meta and Amazon. It is especially strong in connected TV (ads on streaming TV) and retail-data advertising.
How it makes money
Almost all of its revenue is a platform fee, roughly a percentage of the total amount clients spend buying ads through its software (Kokai), plus charges for extra data and features. Revenue was about $2.9 billion in 2025. Growth slowed in 2026: Q1 revenue was about $689 million (up about 12%) and Q2 was about $715 million (up about 3%). Its main channels are connected TV, video, mobile, display, audio and retail media.
What usually moves TTD
- Overall ad spending and the economy (e.g. consumer goods and auto budgets)
- Growth of connected TV and streaming ad inventory (e.g. Netflix, Samsung Ads)
- Competition from Amazon, Google and other walled gardens
- Quarterly revenue growth versus guidance
- Privacy and cookie/identity changes on the open internet